Strategies for Disaster Risk Management

Strategies for Disaster Risk Management INTRODUCTION I. Background Natural disasters have always posed a threat to development. Developing countries are usually far less well placed than industrialised ones to deal effectively with hazards that occur out of the blue. The first priority must be to reduce peoples (men, women and young people) vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods and storms and to avoid the emergence of new risks, in order to secure the progress of development. Disaster risk management is therefore crucial to sustainable development. It is closely linked with the overarching Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing poverty (M D G 1); in many parts of the world this goal cannot be achieved without it. In its report â€Å"Towards Halving Poverty† the German Government again emphasised this link: â€Å"Disaster relief on its own is not enough. In order to save human lives effectively and protect individuals and economies from physical damage in the long term, everything possible must be done before a natural disaster occurs to minimise the impact. Disaster prevention is therefore an important part of any sustainable development strategy†. (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (B M Z), 2004: page32) In recent years the need for disaster risk management has increased as a result of the rise in the number of damaging natural events. Some global trends (such as increasing population pressure on natural resources in some regions, urbanisation and widening economic disparities) are likely to further amplify the risks arising from an increase in the number and intensity of hazardous natural events. As a result of climate change, disaster risk management is facing challenges on an unprecedented scale. In conjunction with these developments, we are seeing a growing risk of crises and conflicts, in particular those arising from competition for vital resources. By dealing appropriately and gender-sensitively with natural disasters and climate change, however, we can go some way to defusing the conflict potential. Disaster risk management is first and foremost the responsibility of the affected country. It is particularly important in countries exposed to major natural risks. In such countries, elements of disaster risk management should increasingly be incorporated as standard practice into national development strategies (such as poverty reduction strategies) and other local, national plans. This presupposes that the statutory and institutional framework required is in place. Entry points for effective action must be identified for each sector. The examples presented in this publication have shown that their education of disaster risks can be addressed at many levels. However, it is always important that the people potentially affected are sensitised and given the information they need, so that they can react promptly; they are directly involved at the scene of the event. Natural hazards and disasters are events that are frequently result in high death tolls and large economic losses which is now becoming a major concerned to international community because of large impact of life losses and economic losses in developing countries. Why is natural hazards and disasters occurring so frequently now a days and how did man increases vulnerability. Population growth, run away organization, high rise building, uses of limited rescores, environment damage etc are just some of the factor explaining the sources of frequent natural hazards which leads to human and material casualties in case of disaster. If there is a risk of natural hazard then large population area is most vulnerable and the impact of disaster will also be high. The traditional way to cope with disaster was using warning before disaster strikes and emergency relief after disaster occurs and the government agency would only play its role in coping disaster. This approach is adequate to reduce l osses in disaster to acceptable levels Due to frequent natural disaster taking place and large of life and economic losses, international community came to the point that by implanting â€Å"Community Base Management Approach† is a process in which at-risk communities are actively engaged in the identification, analysis, treatment, monitoring and evaluation of disaster risks in order to reduce their vulnerabilities and enhance their capacities Disasters can become uncontrollable, once the event has got underway. If the community were not well prepared, control over the disaster event would be usually lost during its occurrence. If each individual in the community is familiar with ways of coping and precautionary measures, then the disruption by a disaster can be reduced. This â€Å"Community Base Approach† where community plays an anchor role with the support of Government, non-government institution agencies. The involvement of the communities is the key aspect for the sustainability of community for disast er reduction. External agencies, like government, non-government organizations may begin and implement community level programs before and after disasters. However, such initiative many times discontinue once the external support is ended. There can be many reasons behind this lack of sustainability, some of which may be the lack of partnership, participation, empowerment and ownership of local communities. All communities have some vitally important assets to deal with disasters. These may include knowledge of disaster warning signs, locally safe and vulnerable areas, experience of past disasters, methods of survival and social relations that are often vitally important in coping with crisis. Local communities have an active part to play before and after disasters so it is therefore important to involve people in decision making on policies and strategies that should be followed for their development in the community. The objective of this management is to prepare community develop hazards mitigation plans before disaster strikes. An effective plan will improve communitys ability to deal with natural disasters and most efficient and effective ways to reduce losses to life and property. Preparing a plan will provide the following benefits to the community: Reduce public and private damage costs Reduce social, emotional, and economic disruption; Increase access to funding sources for hazard mitigation projects Improve ability to implement post-disaster recovery projects by using risk management tools. More number of lives can be saved during the first few hours after disaster has occurred through local response teams, before help arrives from elsewhere. The numerous problems of survival and health resulting from a disaster are dealt with more efficiently, if the community is active and well organized. The social and economic cost of natural disasters has increased in recent years due to population growth, change in land use patterns, migration and unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation and global climate change.[16] In addition to the loss of lives and major destruction of economic and social infrastructure, natural disasters set back poverty reduction programs and cause diversion of government funds to pay for reconstruction and recovery efforts. There has been little formal analysis of the longer-term impacts of disasters in the Philippines but annual infrastructure losses and related diversion of scarce public resources must ultimately have an impact on the countrys long-term sustainable development II. Research Questions Following are the three research questions on which I will conduct my research. In the first part, I will identify the hazards and their impact on third world countries and then I will analyze what are the risks associated with the natural disasters in third world countries. In the second part, I will illustrate the case to support the discussion above, and impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. 1. Research Methodology The research onion described by Mark Saunders, Philip Lewis and Adrian Thornhill (2006) is used to analyze the philosophy, approach and strategy of research. a) Philosophy The major philosophy used in this research used is ‘Realism. According to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), realism is a branch of epistemology which is similar to positivism in that it assumes a scientific approach to the development of knowledge. This assumption underpins the collection of data and the understanding of that data. Bhaskar (1989) argues that we can identify what we dont see through the practical and theoretical processes of the social sciences. The objective of the research is to assess the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. so ontology is not the right choice for this particular research as according to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), it is concerned with the nature of reality. b) Approach The research has employed inductive as well as deductive approach. Since, one of the main objectives of the research is to out the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries, therefore inductive approach has been used extensively. Only where there is a requirement of analyzing the quantitative data, deductive approach will be used. The research approach influences design and gives the researcher the opportunity to consider how each of the various approaches may contribute to, or limit, his study (Creswell, 2003). For research theory there are two main approaches which are mainly used i.e. deductive and inductive approach. Firstly the analysis of the collected data, and then a theory or hypothesis is formulated, this is inductive approach. In contrast, a deductive approach is where, after reviewing the existing theory, hypothesis is developed which is then tested by conducting a research (Bryman, and Bell 2007) The study for will follow Inductive approach for two reasons. In the first place the research involves observation of past disasters, impact of this disaster with s of death and economic losses and currently number of people living in prone disaster areas. In the second place, the inductive approach appears more appropriate to the purpose of this study which is to gather the problem facing to implementing disaster management plan and roles of public and private sector in making strategy and policies with sustainability of the plan. c) Strategy There are two types of research strategies i.e. qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative research strategy is the general orientation to conduct business research. It usually focuses on â€Å"words† instead of statistical analysis of data. It usually involves inductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. The main aim is to generate a theory. Interviewing the expatriate is the main purpose of this research (Bryman and Bell, 2007). On the other hand, quantitative research strategy focuses more on the â€Å"quantification† in collection and analysis of data. It usually involves deductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. Testing the theories in the main purpose in quantitative research (Bryman and Bell, 2007) Some common contrasts between qualitative and quantitative research. Qualitative Quantitative Words Numbers Point of views of participants Point of views of researchers Researcher close Researcher distant Theory emergent Theory testing Process Static Unstructured Structured Contextual understanding Generalized Rich, deep data Hard, reliable data Micro Macro Meaning Behaviour Natural settings Artificial settings (Source: Bryman and Bell, 2007: 426) The strategy of this research will maintain both strategy but quantitative will be more domains on qualitative strategy. Quantitative strategy will provide base on which qualitative strategy will dependable on. According to Burgess, 1982 â€Å"There are several reasons for using the qualitative research. First reason is the belief of the researcher which is based upon the research experience. The other important point is that most researchers use this method, hoping that their work has direct or potential relevance for academic as well as non-academic audiences. All methods have advantages and disadvantages but some methods are still better than the other in order to obtain primary data. Small numbers of participants are used to obtain primary data in this research. In-depth interview is a form of conversation†. (Burgess, 1982) d) Data Analysis Approach The research is mainly comprised of qualitative data and will be inductive in nature; hence analytical induction approach will be used to make the critical remarks. Other theories do not cope with the philosophy, approach and strategy of the research and cannot be used for that reason. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools help to answer questions like who is vulnerable, where they are and why they are vulnerable. GIS was used to identify vulnerable areas using statistical tools. Although the data generated are usually integrated in the form of tables, graphs and/or charts, maps have the advantage of presenting data in an easily accessible, readily visible and eye-catching manner. The resulting maps combine information from different sectors to provide an immediately comprehensive picture of the geographical distribution of vulnerable group. By providing a visual overview on the major issues, maps highlight gaps and shortfalls in information and thus areas needing attention. A GIS based approach is helpful for highly disaggregated data; it can easily perform statistical analysis as well as graphic presentation. 2. Sampling Sample population consists of a number of third world countries such as India, Bangaldesh and Pakistan which are the focus of some of the key disaster in recent years will be under the main focus. Because of the special nature of this research, the data collection points are huge. Henry (1990) advised against using probability sampling technique for sample population of less than 50. Because of the short time span and financial constraints the research will employ homogenous sampling technique. Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007) argue that homogenous sampling technique focuses on one sub group in which all the sample members are similar. This will help us to cover the topic in detail. 3. Data Collection The research employees both qualitative and quantitative data techniques to draw conclusions. However, main emphasis will be given to collect and analyze the qualitative data. The plan of the research will be mainly to use primary data collected from both primary and secondary sources. In this approach different historical data were used to point out the areas and communities which experienced the disaster situation in the past and their present risk and degree of vulnerability. This is more like, learning from past mistake and applying new strategy and plan which was missing in the past. This approach is very helpful in making strategy, determining policies, identifying natural hazard area and communities and implanting plan. According to Jackson (1994) the value of a research is related to its data collection methods and importantly, whether or not it includes both secondary and primary data. Data for the study were collected in two sources: primary and secondary sources. Both primary and secondary data sources were analyzed together to strengths the material and minimize their weaknesses by combining them in respectable way. There are many methods to collect the primary data, but this research will more focus on Literature review, case studies, bibliography, questionnaire and GIS techniques. All these method can be qualitative and quantitative in nature Mostly secondary data of this study included records and latest reports available from the CRED disaster database. Other sources such as articles, textbooks, journals, annual reports, websites etc were also very helpful and used to support reports. Two types of data were used for obtaining data from different reports. Historic data and GIS (geographic Information System) based mapping data. a) Secondary Sources of Data Secondary data will be of utmost importance in this research. Information will be acquired from reliable sources. Priority will be given to government sources in order to provide accurate information. Online website such as Business Monitor Online will be used comprehensively because they contain most up-to-date information. Journals and articles will be used extensively as well because explanation of data from these sources will be more accurate. This research will also include statistical analysis where information will be easily accessible from company reports, IMF Reports, World Bank Reports and government websites. 4. Limitations of the Research There will be a lot of limitations and restrictions in carrying out the desired research. There are limitations associated with the available and up to date data on the third world countries. The questionnaire in research project is to support findings which will be drawn from secondary data but insufficient funds and time restriction may hold back the collection of primary data. The qualitative data analysis also poses threat because it may involve human judgment errors. 3. Literature Review 3.1 Introduction In this chapter the objectives of the study will focus on the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. Research of this mapping is mapped on the base of district level which covers whole region of South Asia. District is divided according to Administrative division of its related country. So the size, population, geological location and climate condition will vary each other although it is situated in same provinces. The mapping of these districts is related to high and medium level of risk to natural events is included in this table. Some district has been promoted to disaster prone district although there have been no evidence of such natural events in past but due to certain factors like rises of sea level, earth quake zone, change in climate condition etc, makes these districts highly exposed to natural events in future. Such as Maldives, although there have been no evidence of tsunami for past 100 years but due to rise in sea lev el and located in earth quake zone whole Maldives is at high risk to flood and tsunami. This table is made on the bases of related to human life and economic losses. So Natural event like wild fire which is very frequent in Nepal and Burma has been excluded from the table because the impact on human lifes and economic losses are very low, although its impact on environmental is very high. 3.2 Disaster The term disaster can be defined as A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources. This notion of disaster draws a distinction between sudden and slow onset disasters. Amongst natural disasters extreme droughts are the only ones that are slow onset by nature. The causes and effects of a drought disaster are far more difficult to ascertain than sudden natural events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or landslides. Due to the gradual nature of the process, often taking place over months and even years, the causes are more complex and it is often only possible to identify the effects indirectly. However, not every extreme natural event is a disaster. A volcanic eruption in an unoccupied area is a natural event but not a disaster. Floods can also have many beneficial effects the soil is supplied with fresh nutrients and made more fertile again, resulting in higher yields. So, disasters always have adverse impacts but specific approaches to them must cater for the dual nature of such events, i.e. disaster risk management searches to maintain the positive impacts while reducing the adverse consequences of extreme natural events. 3.2 Disaster Risk Management Technical Cooperation defines disaster risk management as a series of actions (programmes, projects and/or measures) and instruments expressly aimed at reducing disaster risk in endangered regions, and mitigating the extent of disasters. Disaster risk management includes risk assessment, disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster preparedness. It is used in the international debate to underscore the current trend of taking a proactive approach to hazards posed by extreme natural phenomena. The intention is a comprehensive reduction in disaster risk accounting for all the factors that contribute to risk (risk management), as opposed to a focus on each individual danger. Disaster risk management consists of the following elements: I. Risk Analysis II. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation III. Disaster Preparedness and IV. Disaster Preventive Reconstruction There is a risk of natural disaster when a society is exposed to natural hazards but lack adequate means and ability to protect itself from potential negative impacts i.e. vulnerability. The risk management process analyzes the natural hazard in relation to the societys vulnerability, in order to first evaluate potential damage and losses. This involves calculating the probability that a natural hazard will occur, identifying vulnerability factors in society, drawing up damage scenarios and evaluating measures for rapid reconstruction in the even of a disaster. A societys ability to continue to function while dealing with a hazard is known as its resilience. Prevention and mitigation covers activities whose long term aim is to mitigate the possible adverse impacts of a natural even and its consequences and provide permanent protection against its effects. Prevention and mitigation measures may be constructional and non material. The process of preparedness enables the country to resp ond effectively in case of an imminent disaster. Important elements in the process of preparedness include making the emergency plans, the availability of rescue and emergency services, emergency medical care, rapid and efficient transmission of warnings and the availability of means of communication. An important component of preparedness is the early waning system which significantly reduces the impact of disaster. A good early warning system will promptly identify and assess a hazard. Warnings are issued to the affected population and institutions, who respond appropriately. Disaster preventive reconstruction aims to draw appropriate lessons from the natural disaster and to include disaster reduction criteria and measures directly in the reconstruction process. Disaster Risk Management Process 3.3 Vulnerability of South Asian Countries to Disasters Vulnerability can be defined as the inadequate means or ability to protect oneself against the adverse impacts of natural events and, on the other hand, to recover quickly from their effects. The South Asian countries of the world are vulnerable to a number of factors. These factors comprise of very diverse, often mutually reciprocal, factors that have to be taken into account to determine the vulnerability of a family, a village or a country. The main vulnerability factors of developing countries to disasters are summarized below: * Political-Institutional Factors One of the important vulnerable factors of developing countries to natural disaster is political and institutional factor. The role of legislation is lacking and also it is not commensurate with the hazard or is not implemented (regional development and land use planning, building regulations). The personnel and financial resources available for disaster risk management and preparedness are inadequate. Roles are not properly or clearly assigned and there is a lack of coordination in and amongst the responsible institutions (including centralism: insufficient power for local actors) in developing countries. The political culture is conducive to vested interests and corruption, which hampers consistent disaster risk management (e.g. in the building trade) and effective disaster preparedness. The Democratic institutions in developing countries are underdeveloped and also low level of participation of the population in democratic processes diminishes their self-help capabilities is very low. Also the mechanisms and instruments for spreading financial risks are lacking or inadequate (e.g. disaster funds, insurance). A culture of prevention is obstructed or insufficiently promoted. All of these above mentioned make the developing nation more vulnerable to the natural disasters. * Economic factors Another important vulnerable factor of developing countries to natural disaster is then economic factor. In developing countries the financial resources are insufficient for disaster risk management (e.g. for flood protection infrastructure). Also the level of poverty in general limits the self-help capabilities of large parts of the population, although very effective traditional mechanisms to cope with disasters still exist in many developing countries. In the developing countries poverty increasingly compels people to settle in endangered areas (on riverbanks and steep slopes, in gulleys or ravines or on the slopes of volcanoes). Partly through environmental degradation (e.g. unofficial garbage dumps or slash-and-burn clearance), poor people often contribute to their own higher disaster risk. The economies of developing countries also depend on a few products (low level of diversification) and the danger is particularly great if these sectors are vulnerable to disaster (e.g. agric ulture). Not enough account is taken of the influence of economic activities on disaster risk (e.g. consumption of natural resources). * Sociocultural factors Socio cultural factor also play an important role in making the developing countries vulnerable to natural disasters. In developing countries due to poor education and insufficient knowledge of the cause-effect matrix, people are less able to respond appropriately in a changing environment. Also fatalism is widespread as a consequence of the belief that natural disasters are willed by God and are therefore inevitable. In developing countries the tradition of slash-and-burn clearance or the application of out-dated production methods can result in greater vulnerability for people and their property. On the other hand it may result in greater hazard due to the adverse impact on the natural environment (e.g. erosion through deforestation). The population is not prepared to engage in mutual support schemes and organize themselves in order to negotiate competing interests in the search for greater levels of general welfare. These political, economic and cultural factors are interconnected in a complex way. They have a reciprocal relationship and often compound each other. Progress in individual aspects, therefore, may well also have a positive effect on other vulnerability factors. A general improvement in school education, for instance, can be expected to help reduce poverty, facilitate the application of appropriate production methods and raise organizational abilities. This in turn can motivate people for prevention, thus generating a positive influence on the political factors through greater participation. 3.4 Impact and Threat of Climate Change The major impacts and threats of global warming are well-known. Recent increase in global temperature as already experienced intensity and extreme events, for example frequent occurrence of flood and intensity of heat wave. On the other hand global warming will increase melting water from glaciers and ice sheets which will cause sea level to rise and also has the potential to influence global patterns of ocean circulation respectively. This causes thermal expansion of the oceans. Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture, food security, human health, global ecosystems, biodiversity and coastal zones. Some of the impact and threat had already been experienced and if this continued in current way which will affect the global ecosystem in the following way. Impact Threats 1. Changes in rainfall pattern 1. Will lead to severe shortage of water and causes drought around the globe 2. Will increase average rainfall and causes severe flooding around the globe. 3. It will have unpleasant impact on agriculture and traditional subsistence-based agriculture. This becomes more vulnerable and difficult which will eventually affecting the economic well-being of the local famers. 2. Melting of glaciers 1. Many rivers and lakes formed by melting of glacier water will grow in size and causes flooding recently which pose threat to nearby villages but very soon when there will be no glacial melt, this causes them to dry up and spread drought. 2. If the melting of glaciers continues on the current rate, all Farmlands which depend on glacial water will dry up and it will lead up to scarcity of food. 3. Sea level will rise and entire communities living on coastal zone always pose threat from increasing sea water level. 4. Many animals, birds, and fish that depend on fresh melting water from glaciers for survival will either reduce in numbers or get wiped out over a period of time. 3. Change in regional temperature Change in climate patterns will cause shift in crop growing seasons which affects food security. Crops will tend to fail or become unbeneficial where conditions are currently marginal for their production but on the other hand crops may tend to grow successfully in other area where conditions are suitable and has become marginal for other crops. 2. Increase in temperature will speed up the life cycles of both the mosquito and the disease viruses. This will produce smaller adult mosquitoes to feed more often to develop an egg batch, which in turn increases the chances for disease transmission which will put more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. 3. Temperature increases will potentially accelerate rates of extinction for many habitats and species (up to 30% with a 2 ° C rise in temperature). It will also affect coral reefs, boreal, forests and mountain habitats. 4. Increasing sea levels 1. It will greater the risk of storm surge, inundation and wave damage to coastlines, particularly in small island states and countries with low lying deltas. 2. Fresh underground water on coastal lines will get polluted with salty sea water making it unfit for drinking or irrigation Who is most Vulnerable to natural hazard? 98% of those killed and affected by natural disasters come from developing countries, underlining the link between poverty and vulnerability to disaster. Rich countries have a far greater ability to reduce the effects of extreme weather events (such as floods and droughts) than developing countries. Proof of this can be found in statistics produced by the Red Cross, which reveal that 22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed nations, 145 die per disaster in nations of medium human development. By 2025 over half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and storms. (World Disaster report, 2001) Natural hazards are a part of life. But hazards only become disasters when peoples lives and livelihoods are swept away. The vulnerability of communities is growing due to human activities that lead to increased poverty, greater urban dens Strategies for Disaster Risk Management Strategies for Disaster Risk Management INTRODUCTION I. Background Natural disasters have always posed a threat to development. Developing countries are usually far less well placed than industrialised ones to deal effectively with hazards that occur out of the blue. The first priority must be to reduce peoples (men, women and young people) vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods and storms and to avoid the emergence of new risks, in order to secure the progress of development. Disaster risk management is therefore crucial to sustainable development. It is closely linked with the overarching Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing poverty (M D G 1); in many parts of the world this goal cannot be achieved without it. In its report â€Å"Towards Halving Poverty† the German Government again emphasised this link: â€Å"Disaster relief on its own is not enough. In order to save human lives effectively and protect individuals and economies from physical damage in the long term, everything possible must be done before a natural disaster occurs to minimise the impact. Disaster prevention is therefore an important part of any sustainable development strategy†. (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (B M Z), 2004: page32) In recent years the need for disaster risk management has increased as a result of the rise in the number of damaging natural events. Some global trends (such as increasing population pressure on natural resources in some regions, urbanisation and widening economic disparities) are likely to further amplify the risks arising from an increase in the number and intensity of hazardous natural events. As a result of climate change, disaster risk management is facing challenges on an unprecedented scale. In conjunction with these developments, we are seeing a growing risk of crises and conflicts, in particular those arising from competition for vital resources. By dealing appropriately and gender-sensitively with natural disasters and climate change, however, we can go some way to defusing the conflict potential. Disaster risk management is first and foremost the responsibility of the affected country. It is particularly important in countries exposed to major natural risks. In such countries, elements of disaster risk management should increasingly be incorporated as standard practice into national development strategies (such as poverty reduction strategies) and other local, national plans. This presupposes that the statutory and institutional framework required is in place. Entry points for effective action must be identified for each sector. The examples presented in this publication have shown that their education of disaster risks can be addressed at many levels. However, it is always important that the people potentially affected are sensitised and given the information they need, so that they can react promptly; they are directly involved at the scene of the event. Natural hazards and disasters are events that are frequently result in high death tolls and large economic losses which is now becoming a major concerned to international community because of large impact of life losses and economic losses in developing countries. Why is natural hazards and disasters occurring so frequently now a days and how did man increases vulnerability. Population growth, run away organization, high rise building, uses of limited rescores, environment damage etc are just some of the factor explaining the sources of frequent natural hazards which leads to human and material casualties in case of disaster. If there is a risk of natural hazard then large population area is most vulnerable and the impact of disaster will also be high. The traditional way to cope with disaster was using warning before disaster strikes and emergency relief after disaster occurs and the government agency would only play its role in coping disaster. This approach is adequate to reduce l osses in disaster to acceptable levels Due to frequent natural disaster taking place and large of life and economic losses, international community came to the point that by implanting â€Å"Community Base Management Approach† is a process in which at-risk communities are actively engaged in the identification, analysis, treatment, monitoring and evaluation of disaster risks in order to reduce their vulnerabilities and enhance their capacities Disasters can become uncontrollable, once the event has got underway. If the community were not well prepared, control over the disaster event would be usually lost during its occurrence. If each individual in the community is familiar with ways of coping and precautionary measures, then the disruption by a disaster can be reduced. This â€Å"Community Base Approach† where community plays an anchor role with the support of Government, non-government institution agencies. The involvement of the communities is the key aspect for the sustainability of community for disast er reduction. External agencies, like government, non-government organizations may begin and implement community level programs before and after disasters. However, such initiative many times discontinue once the external support is ended. There can be many reasons behind this lack of sustainability, some of which may be the lack of partnership, participation, empowerment and ownership of local communities. All communities have some vitally important assets to deal with disasters. These may include knowledge of disaster warning signs, locally safe and vulnerable areas, experience of past disasters, methods of survival and social relations that are often vitally important in coping with crisis. Local communities have an active part to play before and after disasters so it is therefore important to involve people in decision making on policies and strategies that should be followed for their development in the community. The objective of this management is to prepare community develop hazards mitigation plans before disaster strikes. An effective plan will improve communitys ability to deal with natural disasters and most efficient and effective ways to reduce losses to life and property. Preparing a plan will provide the following benefits to the community: Reduce public and private damage costs Reduce social, emotional, and economic disruption; Increase access to funding sources for hazard mitigation projects Improve ability to implement post-disaster recovery projects by using risk management tools. More number of lives can be saved during the first few hours after disaster has occurred through local response teams, before help arrives from elsewhere. The numerous problems of survival and health resulting from a disaster are dealt with more efficiently, if the community is active and well organized. The social and economic cost of natural disasters has increased in recent years due to population growth, change in land use patterns, migration and unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation and global climate change.[16] In addition to the loss of lives and major destruction of economic and social infrastructure, natural disasters set back poverty reduction programs and cause diversion of government funds to pay for reconstruction and recovery efforts. There has been little formal analysis of the longer-term impacts of disasters in the Philippines but annual infrastructure losses and related diversion of scarce public resources must ultimately have an impact on the countrys long-term sustainable development II. Research Questions Following are the three research questions on which I will conduct my research. In the first part, I will identify the hazards and their impact on third world countries and then I will analyze what are the risks associated with the natural disasters in third world countries. In the second part, I will illustrate the case to support the discussion above, and impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. 1. Research Methodology The research onion described by Mark Saunders, Philip Lewis and Adrian Thornhill (2006) is used to analyze the philosophy, approach and strategy of research. a) Philosophy The major philosophy used in this research used is ‘Realism. According to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), realism is a branch of epistemology which is similar to positivism in that it assumes a scientific approach to the development of knowledge. This assumption underpins the collection of data and the understanding of that data. Bhaskar (1989) argues that we can identify what we dont see through the practical and theoretical processes of the social sciences. The objective of the research is to assess the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. so ontology is not the right choice for this particular research as according to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), it is concerned with the nature of reality. b) Approach The research has employed inductive as well as deductive approach. Since, one of the main objectives of the research is to out the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries, therefore inductive approach has been used extensively. Only where there is a requirement of analyzing the quantitative data, deductive approach will be used. The research approach influences design and gives the researcher the opportunity to consider how each of the various approaches may contribute to, or limit, his study (Creswell, 2003). For research theory there are two main approaches which are mainly used i.e. deductive and inductive approach. Firstly the analysis of the collected data, and then a theory or hypothesis is formulated, this is inductive approach. In contrast, a deductive approach is where, after reviewing the existing theory, hypothesis is developed which is then tested by conducting a research (Bryman, and Bell 2007) The study for will follow Inductive approach for two reasons. In the first place the research involves observation of past disasters, impact of this disaster with s of death and economic losses and currently number of people living in prone disaster areas. In the second place, the inductive approach appears more appropriate to the purpose of this study which is to gather the problem facing to implementing disaster management plan and roles of public and private sector in making strategy and policies with sustainability of the plan. c) Strategy There are two types of research strategies i.e. qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative research strategy is the general orientation to conduct business research. It usually focuses on â€Å"words† instead of statistical analysis of data. It usually involves inductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. The main aim is to generate a theory. Interviewing the expatriate is the main purpose of this research (Bryman and Bell, 2007). On the other hand, quantitative research strategy focuses more on the â€Å"quantification† in collection and analysis of data. It usually involves deductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. Testing the theories in the main purpose in quantitative research (Bryman and Bell, 2007) Some common contrasts between qualitative and quantitative research. Qualitative Quantitative Words Numbers Point of views of participants Point of views of researchers Researcher close Researcher distant Theory emergent Theory testing Process Static Unstructured Structured Contextual understanding Generalized Rich, deep data Hard, reliable data Micro Macro Meaning Behaviour Natural settings Artificial settings (Source: Bryman and Bell, 2007: 426) The strategy of this research will maintain both strategy but quantitative will be more domains on qualitative strategy. Quantitative strategy will provide base on which qualitative strategy will dependable on. According to Burgess, 1982 â€Å"There are several reasons for using the qualitative research. First reason is the belief of the researcher which is based upon the research experience. The other important point is that most researchers use this method, hoping that their work has direct or potential relevance for academic as well as non-academic audiences. All methods have advantages and disadvantages but some methods are still better than the other in order to obtain primary data. Small numbers of participants are used to obtain primary data in this research. In-depth interview is a form of conversation†. (Burgess, 1982) d) Data Analysis Approach The research is mainly comprised of qualitative data and will be inductive in nature; hence analytical induction approach will be used to make the critical remarks. Other theories do not cope with the philosophy, approach and strategy of the research and cannot be used for that reason. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools help to answer questions like who is vulnerable, where they are and why they are vulnerable. GIS was used to identify vulnerable areas using statistical tools. Although the data generated are usually integrated in the form of tables, graphs and/or charts, maps have the advantage of presenting data in an easily accessible, readily visible and eye-catching manner. The resulting maps combine information from different sectors to provide an immediately comprehensive picture of the geographical distribution of vulnerable group. By providing a visual overview on the major issues, maps highlight gaps and shortfalls in information and thus areas needing attention. A GIS based approach is helpful for highly disaggregated data; it can easily perform statistical analysis as well as graphic presentation. 2. Sampling Sample population consists of a number of third world countries such as India, Bangaldesh and Pakistan which are the focus of some of the key disaster in recent years will be under the main focus. Because of the special nature of this research, the data collection points are huge. Henry (1990) advised against using probability sampling technique for sample population of less than 50. Because of the short time span and financial constraints the research will employ homogenous sampling technique. Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007) argue that homogenous sampling technique focuses on one sub group in which all the sample members are similar. This will help us to cover the topic in detail. 3. Data Collection The research employees both qualitative and quantitative data techniques to draw conclusions. However, main emphasis will be given to collect and analyze the qualitative data. The plan of the research will be mainly to use primary data collected from both primary and secondary sources. In this approach different historical data were used to point out the areas and communities which experienced the disaster situation in the past and their present risk and degree of vulnerability. This is more like, learning from past mistake and applying new strategy and plan which was missing in the past. This approach is very helpful in making strategy, determining policies, identifying natural hazard area and communities and implanting plan. According to Jackson (1994) the value of a research is related to its data collection methods and importantly, whether or not it includes both secondary and primary data. Data for the study were collected in two sources: primary and secondary sources. Both primary and secondary data sources were analyzed together to strengths the material and minimize their weaknesses by combining them in respectable way. There are many methods to collect the primary data, but this research will more focus on Literature review, case studies, bibliography, questionnaire and GIS techniques. All these method can be qualitative and quantitative in nature Mostly secondary data of this study included records and latest reports available from the CRED disaster database. Other sources such as articles, textbooks, journals, annual reports, websites etc were also very helpful and used to support reports. Two types of data were used for obtaining data from different reports. Historic data and GIS (geographic Information System) based mapping data. a) Secondary Sources of Data Secondary data will be of utmost importance in this research. Information will be acquired from reliable sources. Priority will be given to government sources in order to provide accurate information. Online website such as Business Monitor Online will be used comprehensively because they contain most up-to-date information. Journals and articles will be used extensively as well because explanation of data from these sources will be more accurate. This research will also include statistical analysis where information will be easily accessible from company reports, IMF Reports, World Bank Reports and government websites. 4. Limitations of the Research There will be a lot of limitations and restrictions in carrying out the desired research. There are limitations associated with the available and up to date data on the third world countries. The questionnaire in research project is to support findings which will be drawn from secondary data but insufficient funds and time restriction may hold back the collection of primary data. The qualitative data analysis also poses threat because it may involve human judgment errors. 3. Literature Review 3.1 Introduction In this chapter the objectives of the study will focus on the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. Research of this mapping is mapped on the base of district level which covers whole region of South Asia. District is divided according to Administrative division of its related country. So the size, population, geological location and climate condition will vary each other although it is situated in same provinces. The mapping of these districts is related to high and medium level of risk to natural events is included in this table. Some district has been promoted to disaster prone district although there have been no evidence of such natural events in past but due to certain factors like rises of sea level, earth quake zone, change in climate condition etc, makes these districts highly exposed to natural events in future. Such as Maldives, although there have been no evidence of tsunami for past 100 years but due to rise in sea lev el and located in earth quake zone whole Maldives is at high risk to flood and tsunami. This table is made on the bases of related to human life and economic losses. So Natural event like wild fire which is very frequent in Nepal and Burma has been excluded from the table because the impact on human lifes and economic losses are very low, although its impact on environmental is very high. 3.2 Disaster The term disaster can be defined as A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources. This notion of disaster draws a distinction between sudden and slow onset disasters. Amongst natural disasters extreme droughts are the only ones that are slow onset by nature. The causes and effects of a drought disaster are far more difficult to ascertain than sudden natural events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or landslides. Due to the gradual nature of the process, often taking place over months and even years, the causes are more complex and it is often only possible to identify the effects indirectly. However, not every extreme natural event is a disaster. A volcanic eruption in an unoccupied area is a natural event but not a disaster. Floods can also have many beneficial effects the soil is supplied with fresh nutrients and made more fertile again, resulting in higher yields. So, disasters always have adverse impacts but specific approaches to them must cater for the dual nature of such events, i.e. disaster risk management searches to maintain the positive impacts while reducing the adverse consequences of extreme natural events. 3.2 Disaster Risk Management Technical Cooperation defines disaster risk management as a series of actions (programmes, projects and/or measures) and instruments expressly aimed at reducing disaster risk in endangered regions, and mitigating the extent of disasters. Disaster risk management includes risk assessment, disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster preparedness. It is used in the international debate to underscore the current trend of taking a proactive approach to hazards posed by extreme natural phenomena. The intention is a comprehensive reduction in disaster risk accounting for all the factors that contribute to risk (risk management), as opposed to a focus on each individual danger. Disaster risk management consists of the following elements: I. Risk Analysis II. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation III. Disaster Preparedness and IV. Disaster Preventive Reconstruction There is a risk of natural disaster when a society is exposed to natural hazards but lack adequate means and ability to protect itself from potential negative impacts i.e. vulnerability. The risk management process analyzes the natural hazard in relation to the societys vulnerability, in order to first evaluate potential damage and losses. This involves calculating the probability that a natural hazard will occur, identifying vulnerability factors in society, drawing up damage scenarios and evaluating measures for rapid reconstruction in the even of a disaster. A societys ability to continue to function while dealing with a hazard is known as its resilience. Prevention and mitigation covers activities whose long term aim is to mitigate the possible adverse impacts of a natural even and its consequences and provide permanent protection against its effects. Prevention and mitigation measures may be constructional and non material. The process of preparedness enables the country to resp ond effectively in case of an imminent disaster. Important elements in the process of preparedness include making the emergency plans, the availability of rescue and emergency services, emergency medical care, rapid and efficient transmission of warnings and the availability of means of communication. An important component of preparedness is the early waning system which significantly reduces the impact of disaster. A good early warning system will promptly identify and assess a hazard. Warnings are issued to the affected population and institutions, who respond appropriately. Disaster preventive reconstruction aims to draw appropriate lessons from the natural disaster and to include disaster reduction criteria and measures directly in the reconstruction process. Disaster Risk Management Process 3.3 Vulnerability of South Asian Countries to Disasters Vulnerability can be defined as the inadequate means or ability to protect oneself against the adverse impacts of natural events and, on the other hand, to recover quickly from their effects. The South Asian countries of the world are vulnerable to a number of factors. These factors comprise of very diverse, often mutually reciprocal, factors that have to be taken into account to determine the vulnerability of a family, a village or a country. The main vulnerability factors of developing countries to disasters are summarized below: * Political-Institutional Factors One of the important vulnerable factors of developing countries to natural disaster is political and institutional factor. The role of legislation is lacking and also it is not commensurate with the hazard or is not implemented (regional development and land use planning, building regulations). The personnel and financial resources available for disaster risk management and preparedness are inadequate. Roles are not properly or clearly assigned and there is a lack of coordination in and amongst the responsible institutions (including centralism: insufficient power for local actors) in developing countries. The political culture is conducive to vested interests and corruption, which hampers consistent disaster risk management (e.g. in the building trade) and effective disaster preparedness. The Democratic institutions in developing countries are underdeveloped and also low level of participation of the population in democratic processes diminishes their self-help capabilities is very low. Also the mechanisms and instruments for spreading financial risks are lacking or inadequate (e.g. disaster funds, insurance). A culture of prevention is obstructed or insufficiently promoted. All of these above mentioned make the developing nation more vulnerable to the natural disasters. * Economic factors Another important vulnerable factor of developing countries to natural disaster is then economic factor. In developing countries the financial resources are insufficient for disaster risk management (e.g. for flood protection infrastructure). Also the level of poverty in general limits the self-help capabilities of large parts of the population, although very effective traditional mechanisms to cope with disasters still exist in many developing countries. In the developing countries poverty increasingly compels people to settle in endangered areas (on riverbanks and steep slopes, in gulleys or ravines or on the slopes of volcanoes). Partly through environmental degradation (e.g. unofficial garbage dumps or slash-and-burn clearance), poor people often contribute to their own higher disaster risk. The economies of developing countries also depend on a few products (low level of diversification) and the danger is particularly great if these sectors are vulnerable to disaster (e.g. agric ulture). Not enough account is taken of the influence of economic activities on disaster risk (e.g. consumption of natural resources). * Sociocultural factors Socio cultural factor also play an important role in making the developing countries vulnerable to natural disasters. In developing countries due to poor education and insufficient knowledge of the cause-effect matrix, people are less able to respond appropriately in a changing environment. Also fatalism is widespread as a consequence of the belief that natural disasters are willed by God and are therefore inevitable. In developing countries the tradition of slash-and-burn clearance or the application of out-dated production methods can result in greater vulnerability for people and their property. On the other hand it may result in greater hazard due to the adverse impact on the natural environment (e.g. erosion through deforestation). The population is not prepared to engage in mutual support schemes and organize themselves in order to negotiate competing interests in the search for greater levels of general welfare. These political, economic and cultural factors are interconnected in a complex way. They have a reciprocal relationship and often compound each other. Progress in individual aspects, therefore, may well also have a positive effect on other vulnerability factors. A general improvement in school education, for instance, can be expected to help reduce poverty, facilitate the application of appropriate production methods and raise organizational abilities. This in turn can motivate people for prevention, thus generating a positive influence on the political factors through greater participation. 3.4 Impact and Threat of Climate Change The major impacts and threats of global warming are well-known. Recent increase in global temperature as already experienced intensity and extreme events, for example frequent occurrence of flood and intensity of heat wave. On the other hand global warming will increase melting water from glaciers and ice sheets which will cause sea level to rise and also has the potential to influence global patterns of ocean circulation respectively. This causes thermal expansion of the oceans. Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture, food security, human health, global ecosystems, biodiversity and coastal zones. Some of the impact and threat had already been experienced and if this continued in current way which will affect the global ecosystem in the following way. Impact Threats 1. Changes in rainfall pattern 1. Will lead to severe shortage of water and causes drought around the globe 2. Will increase average rainfall and causes severe flooding around the globe. 3. It will have unpleasant impact on agriculture and traditional subsistence-based agriculture. This becomes more vulnerable and difficult which will eventually affecting the economic well-being of the local famers. 2. Melting of glaciers 1. Many rivers and lakes formed by melting of glacier water will grow in size and causes flooding recently which pose threat to nearby villages but very soon when there will be no glacial melt, this causes them to dry up and spread drought. 2. If the melting of glaciers continues on the current rate, all Farmlands which depend on glacial water will dry up and it will lead up to scarcity of food. 3. Sea level will rise and entire communities living on coastal zone always pose threat from increasing sea water level. 4. Many animals, birds, and fish that depend on fresh melting water from glaciers for survival will either reduce in numbers or get wiped out over a period of time. 3. Change in regional temperature Change in climate patterns will cause shift in crop growing seasons which affects food security. Crops will tend to fail or become unbeneficial where conditions are currently marginal for their production but on the other hand crops may tend to grow successfully in other area where conditions are suitable and has become marginal for other crops. 2. Increase in temperature will speed up the life cycles of both the mosquito and the disease viruses. This will produce smaller adult mosquitoes to feed more often to develop an egg batch, which in turn increases the chances for disease transmission which will put more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. 3. Temperature increases will potentially accelerate rates of extinction for many habitats and species (up to 30% with a 2 ° C rise in temperature). It will also affect coral reefs, boreal, forests and mountain habitats. 4. Increasing sea levels 1. It will greater the risk of storm surge, inundation and wave damage to coastlines, particularly in small island states and countries with low lying deltas. 2. Fresh underground water on coastal lines will get polluted with salty sea water making it unfit for drinking or irrigation Who is most Vulnerable to natural hazard? 98% of those killed and affected by natural disasters come from developing countries, underlining the link between poverty and vulnerability to disaster. Rich countries have a far greater ability to reduce the effects of extreme weather events (such as floods and droughts) than developing countries. Proof of this can be found in statistics produced by the Red Cross, which reveal that 22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed nations, 145 die per disaster in nations of medium human development. By 2025 over half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and storms. (World Disaster report, 2001) Natural hazards are a part of life. But hazards only become disasters when peoples lives and livelihoods are swept away. The vulnerability of communities is growing due to human activities that lead to increased poverty, greater urban dens