Monday, September 30, 2019

Coffee Industry Essay

From the discovery of small, brightly colored red berries on trees in Ethiopia came the largest imported commodity in the world, second only to oil. The coffee bean provides a livelihood for over 20 million people worldwide with an estimated worldwide retail sales expected to grow by a compounded rate of 6. 9% from 2005-2010, reaching $48. 2 billion by 2010, according to The U. S. Market for Coffee and Ready-to-Drink Coffee. [1] The two main species of coffee beans are Arabica and Robusta. Arabica is a high-quality coffee typically grown at higher elevations where the optimal climatic conditions necessary to grow this specialty grade of coffee are found. Arabica coffee is traded in two ways: ? On the highly volatile New York â€Å"C† market where the â€Å"C† price is affected by the global supply as it rises and falls. The average â€Å"C† price for a pound of coffee during fiscal 2005 was $1. 04. ? Higher-quality Arabica beans are used in specialty coffee. Specialty coffee represents 10 percent of the total worldwide coffee market. Prices for specialty coffee are higher than the â€Å"C† offers in order to provide better rates payable to producing farmers for quality. [2] According to the National Coffee Association in Volume 2005. 4 of Coffee Trax, as of December 2005, forecasts for the world coffee production for 2005-2006 will be 113. 1 million bags. Production is down 5. 5% over the actual 2004-2005 yields of 119. 8 million bags. Domestic consumption in producing countries in 2005-2006 is forecast to increase to 31. 2 million bags, indicating domestic use should be 9. 9% higher in 2005/06 than in 2004/05. Using the most current data, world coffee consumption for 2003/04 was 96. 5 million bags, up by 1. 8% over 2002/03’s production. â€Å"In 1999 there were 108,000,000 coffee consumers in the United States spending an approximated 9. 2 billion dollars in the retail sector and 8. 7 billion dollars in the foodservice sector every year (SCAA 1999 Market Report). It can be inferred, therefore, that coffee drinkers spend on average $164. 71 per year on coffee. The National Coffee Association found in 2000 that 54% of the adult population of the United States drinks coffee daily (NCA Coffee Drinking Trends Survey, 2000). They also reported that 18. 12% of the coffee drinkers in the United States drink gourmet coffee beverages daily (NCA). In addition to the 54% who drink coffee everyday, 25% of Americans drink coffee occasionally (NCA). The average consumption per capita in the United States is around 4. 4 Kg. Among coffee drinkers (i. e. not per capita) the average consumption in the United States is 3. 1 cups of coffee per day (NCA). Per capita men drink approximately 1. 9 cups per day, whereas women drink an average of 1. 4 cups of coffee a day (NCA). The USDA’s 2005/2006 December estimate for world exportable production is 82.0 million bags which is 10. 2% lower than 2004/05. Total U. S. imports were down 15% for the second to third quarter of 2005. Estimated roastings for the third quarter of 2005 were up to 4. 7 million bags compared to the second quarter but down by 5. 8% for the year-ago quarter. [3] Retail prices were up from $3. 33 to $3. 40 for the average quarterly retail price of a pound of roast-and-ground coffee or 2. 1% after comparing the third-quarter 2005 to the second quarter. Compared to the year-ago quarter, average retail prices were up by 18. 1%, moving to $3. 40 from $2. 88. The average monthly retail price continues to be 20. 8% below its seven-year high of $4. 67 in August 1997. [1] Fair Trade coffee is beginning to affect the economics of the coffee industry. Coffee retailers to help maintain a sustainable supply of coffee are increasingly adopting the Fair Trade movement. Over the years a coffee crisis has developed as supply has greatly exceeded demand. This paradox of continued growth of retail pricing at the expense of the small coffee farmers has driven retailers like Starbucks to create their own methods of providing higher profits to producing farms so that supply can be maintained. Under a Fair Trade agreement producers are guaranteed a fair price consisting of a floor price of $1. 26 per pound and $1. 41 for certified organic coffee. [2] From 2002 to 2004, USAID invested over $57 million on coffee projects in over 18 countries in Latin America, East Africa and Asia in an effort to create sustainable supplies of coffee. Other movements such as Organic and Shade Tree coffee have had similar goals to help with environmental and quality concerns on the producing farms. [4] Coffee consumers are continuing to show a preference for premium coffees. While most brands have declined in sales during the past year, premium coffees have managed growth, according to data from Information Resources Inc. , which measures sales through supermarkets; drug stores and mass merchandise outlets. Ground coffees lost 1. 8 percent of sales for a category total of $1. 6 billion, but whole bean coffees were up 2. 2 percent. Starbucks grew in both segments, with a 13. 2 percent increase in ground coffee sales and 6. 4 percent in whole bean sales. [5] Retailers such as Starbucks in the specialty coffees use the highest-quality Arabica. Specialty coffee is a broad category of coffee positioned as the highest quality and/or roasted with the ideal techniques or even coffee from particular plantations. â€Å"Even though the overall U. S. coffee market has been sluggish lately, the specialty component has seen significant growth, with retail dollar sales approaching $9 billion in 2003. The segment’s sales in 2003 represented growth of 6. 7 percent over 2002’s $8. 4 billion. In 2003, coffee cafes – the approximately 11,240 retail locations including seating, such as most Starbuck’s outlets – generated $6. 1 billion in retail sales, or 68. 3 percent of the segment’s total. Coffee bean roasters and retailers – the 1,350 sites with on-premise roasting – accounted for 14 percent of sales with $1. 3 billion. Coffee retailers without seating, also known as kiosks, had sales of $810 million, which represented 9. 0 percent of the total. There were approximately 2,700 coffee kiosks operating in 2003. Mobile retailers (i. e. , carts) accounted for an additional 3. 2 percent of sales, with all other channels responsible for the rest. † [6] Driving Forces in the Coffee Industry Competitive and industry conditions experience change due to the forces that are pressuring industry participants to alter their actions. Competitors, customers, or suppliers are enticed to change their ways. Those with the biggest influence on industry structure and the competitive industry environment are driving forces. The coffee industry has four driving forces that originate in the industrial and competitive environment. A change in who buys the product and how they use it is one of the four driving forces in the coffee industry. Shifts in buyer demographics and the way consumers use the product have altered the competition for this industry. The variation has prompted producers to broaden the product line and try different sales and promotion approaches. Changing societal concerns, attitudes, and lifestyles is the other driving force that ties in with the customer base and usage. Society is changing, with the new generations being a huge influence. Parents, a huge factor in the lifestyle, attitudes, and opinions of their children, drink coffee and are, thus, promoting coffee to the offspring. These young persons are looking for caffeine to keep them going through their increasingly busy days. At age 13, who knew that coffee was needed to add to their ever-so hyper lives? Coffee is established as a drink older people consume. Young people are always aspiring to be older than they are, so coffee is marketed in a different way to the younger generations as specialty coffee and gourmet beverages. Marketing these drinks as â€Å"cool† and â€Å"hip† is also a successful method of attraction. Establishing loyalty early while coffee drinkers are young will ensure a prospective future for this industry. In addition, the use of coffee has changed over the years. Coffee was first marketed as a breakfast drink for the working parent to get a boost of energy for the day. As more women started joining the workforce, the coffee consumption increased. Throughout the years, an increasing amount of people started drinking coffee more frequently throughout the day. Today, it is not uncommon to see a person drinking a gourmet coffee drink at 10:00 p. m. , as well as anytime throughout the day. Whenever you need that caffeine-boosted beverage or just want that coffee bean taste most love, consumers now can look for multiple types of coffee drinks to satisfy the craving. Growing buyer preferences for differentiated products instead of standardized is the driving force that allows the product innovation to take lead in this industry. Due to consumers demand for something different, companies in this industry needed to expand current products to fit customer needs and wants. The success of product innovation of introducing coffee drinks and coffee flavors, made the choices for consumers grow. Consumers wanted more flavor and excitement, instead of the regular or decaffeinated options. During the hot summer months, many coffee lovers wanted the taste of coffee but were not fond of drinking a hot drink. Iced coffee drinks helped to solve that problem. Now, people can drink coffee anytime of the year. Many consumers do not just drink coffee in the morning, like the generations before; meetings, study sessions, hanging out, talking amongst old friends and other events are all done through coffee drinking. Due to the buyer influences, the coffee industry has grown in all directions and continues to see a future with innovation and other driving forces helping it along the way. Lastly, product innovation is a driving force that has allowed the coffee industry to grow. The competitive environment is fierce and product innovation is one of the key driving forces to stay on top of the industry’s market share. Coffee drinks were developed as an anytime coffee drink. Such drinks are Espressos, Cappuccinos, Frappaccinos, Lattes, and Mochas. Whether a consumer likes it hot or cold is no difference now; iced coffee is for those that do not feel like a hot cup. Black, White, Irish, Turkish and Americano are also other types of coffee to choose from. Flavored coffee is a pillar innovation to this product category allowing different consumers’ taste buds to run wild. Chocolate covered coffee beans are another innovation that expands the use of coffee in a nontraditional way, a snack. This industry growth has also allowed companies the opportunity to promote to different consumer markets. Young and old purchasers, people that like hot or cold coffee, and those that like a coffee drink in the morning or evening are all targeted now that the product lines have broadened the scope of the industry. Product innovation has helped consumers’ differentiation issues, along with allowing them to drink it anytime of day they need an extra tasty boost of energy. In order to stay on top of the competitive environment in this industry, a company has to accept the driving forces and make each one positive for the company in the long run. The following driving forces are influencing the coffee industry: change in who buys the product and how they use it; changing societal concerns, attitudes, and lifestyles; growing buyer preferences for differentiated products instead of standardized ones; and product innovation. Each of these driving forces increases the competition in the industry. The increased demand for products, especially the new innovated ones, is an opportunity for profitability as well. Because of the innovation, many people are expecting choices for the long run; the companies that offer the products consumers want will prosper. Competitive Analysis of the Coffee Industry Although there are many substitutes for coffee when it is regarded as nothing more than a liquid to drink, most people would agree that there are relatively few that would be considered viable substitutes to dedicated coffee drinkers. Historically, teas have been the greatest rival substitute for coffee, and just as there are specialty coffees, there are specialty teas as well. The key to coffee substitutes being successful in luring coffee drinkers over to their products is differentiation. While tea alone may be substantially differentiated from coffee, a dedicated coffee drinker will need some sort of hook, or angle, to get them to try something different. Often this angle comes in the form of a doctor telling them to cut back on caffeine or to stay away from coffee altogether. According to About. com the top five coffee substitutes are: 1. )Roastaroma ? a tea â€Å"blend of roasted barley, roasted chicory root, and roasted carob, with spices cinnamon, allspice, and star anise. † 2. )Genmaicha ? a â€Å"green tea with roasted brown rice. † 3. )Teechino ? â€Å"made from roasted carob, roasted barley, and roasted chicory† containing â€Å"figs, almonds, and dates. † 4. )Cafix ? â€Å"a freeze-dried grain drink made from barley and chicory. † This drink is non-acidic and does not contain caffeine. 5. )Pero ? â€Å"made from malted barley, chicory, and rye. † Although coffee substitutes are readily available and reasonably priced, traditional coffee drinkers are usually dedicated to coffee in general, if not one particular brand. Therefore, buyers tend to view substitutes as not adequately comparable alternatives. One of the coffee industry’s greatest attributes is the loyalty of their customers. Buyers of coffee can be broken down into two groups; individuals and businesses. An individual coffee drinker will have little or no real power to influence the industry or a particular seller beyond switching brands. The switching costs of individuals are virtually nothing; therefore they can move between brands whenever they are dissatisfied with quality or price. Business buyers such as restaurant chains, hotel chains, convenience stores, and supermarket chains have considerably more power than an individual buyer. This is simply due to economies of scale where a restaurant chain purchasing several thousand pounds a week will have more influence on a supplier than an individual buying one or two pounds per month. Supermarket chains are in a strong position as well, as they can offer as much or as little shelf space as they want. They can also switch brands on shelf space, virtually without cost, to replace poor selling brands with other brands, which may have a higher sales rate. Therefore buyer power depends upon the quantity bought, as with many industries. The power of buyers may range from weak to strong or even fierce. The threat of new entrants into the coffee industry is somewhat strong. While entrants into large markets may not be many, the entry of small shops in local markets offering specialty coffees has grown rapidly in the last several years. Entrants into the specialty coffee arena have been lured in by rising demand of such coffee and attractive profit margins. While these local shops will not be able to compete with large corporations such as Kraft, Proctor & Gamble, or Starbuck’s on an international basis, they can account for some competition in local, concentrated markets by offering a niche; an alternative to corporate retailers with a less personable and hospitable atmosphere. Retailers such as these tend to do well in more rural areas where major corporations may not wish to enter, or in areas where collegiate or more naturalistic atmospheres prevail. These areas may be less inclined to cater to large corporations. New entrants into the coffee industry are also faced with the obstacle of overcoming name brand loyalties. Although in some small specialty coffee markets a new brand with a unique name or style may do well, in most arenas coffee drinkers are extremely loyal to their brands when they are purchasing for home consumption. These buyers are not likely to switch brands for superficial reasons. The competitive pressure from suppliers is relatively weak in the coffee industry. The individual coffee bean farmers have little control over the price of the coffee they sell. The worldwide market has little fluctuations and any that may occur have little effect on any one particular farm. Recently world coffee supply has been exceeding demand, which has taken even more power away from the suppliers who must compete with growers from around the world. The futures market provides security to firms purchasing beans from governments. By buying these futures contracts the company is promising to buy a certain amount of coffee at a stated price no matter what the overall market price may be at the time. The government selling the contracts is promising to provide the amount of coffee stated to the buyer at the stated price regardless of the current market price. Governments also have a role in determining supply as they can set regulations governing the number of trees that are planted, provide price subsidizing for farmers, and impose tariffs. Furthermore, the price of coffee beans has not been increasing at the same rate as the price of your average cup at a specialty shop, or as fast as inflation. In January of 1996 the price of coffee beans was $1. 02 per pound [7]. Ten years later in January of 2006 the price has only increased to $1. 17 per pound, an increase of 14. 12% [7]. In the same period inflation had risen approximately 25. 3% [8]. Rivalry in the coffee industry among competing sellers is vigorous. Although the overall market for coffee grew fast in the late 1990’s, especially regarding the specialty coffee markets, it has leveled off some in the last few years and the overall demand is growing slowly. Another reason for the high level of competitiveness within the industry is due to the relatively low differentiation ability of coffee. While specialty coffees derive some level of differentiation from region of growth or roasting methods, the overall product is fairly standardized. This leads to increase jockeying for position among existing firms, as they cannot lure customers in with a variety of unique products. Some firms however are attempting to lure customers in with new products such as Folgers’ Home Cafe system, which is a one-cup pressure-brewing system. These devices use â€Å"pods,† or individually packaged coffee for single serve applications. Other companies have also been marketing individually packaged coffee so that consumers can make a â€Å"perfect cup† every time. The switching costs of buyers are also very low, if not non-existent. Buyers only have to purchase a different brand in order to switch. While some businesses may have to replace equipment if they switch brands, a business of large purchasing capacity will likely have equipment provided for them by their coffee bean supplier. The recent surge in specialty coffee brands has increased rivalry among existing firms. As companies such as Starbuck’s have grown and acquired market share, companies such as Kraft, Proctor & Gamble, and Nestle have had to increase advertising and create new specialty coffees of their own in order to compete. â€Å"Sales of specialty coffee were $10 Billion in October of 2005 and expected to rise at a rate of 7% annually, while sales of traditional brands have been falling. † [9] Over the past two years Maxwell House has seen a decline of $75 Million in supermarket sales alone. † [9] Furthermore, companies like Starbuck’s have been acquiring smaller companies and thereby growing in market share and sales. This has been done to such an extent to make them comparable to big firms such as Kraft and Proctor & Gamble who compete in various markets with multiple products. This has increased rivalry among these firms as they struggle to maintain their market share. Key Success Factors in the Coffee Industry Coffee drinkers are becoming interested in the type of coffee they drink, people who want specialty chocolates and wines want specialty coffee. Specialty coffee is label â€Å"gourmet† or â€Å"premium† coffee. The specialty coffee bean comes form rare locations and is 100% from that origin; that means no mixing with another bean. People want to know the beans country of origin and if the bean is a blend or a single-origin. Coffee originates from a variety of places like South America, Africa, Middle and Far East, and Jamaica. The Specialty Coffee Association of America (SCAA) said people want specialty coffee because of its superior coffee, â€Å"People want things to taste good and clean and no longer want cheap coffee. † The SCAA reported that 15% of American adults drink specialty coffee an increase from 6% points over 2000. According to Mintel International Group, saw producers who specialize in coffee rise, Procter and Gamble’s Millstone premium brand increased 37. 5% and Starbucks rose 23% between 2001 and 2003 (Chater, 2005). Along with specialty coffee is flavored coffee, which is increasing popular. Flavored coffee ranges from Cherry Vanilla with Pecans and Cashews, Orange Cappuccino, or even Hazelnut. The SCAA claims flavor coffee will continue to grow in the total market share. The Motley Fool Stock exchange reported that the 7-Eleven saw 5% of sales come from coffee products like the Slurpee with flavors Cherry Creme and Vanilla Nut. The Black Mountain Gold Coffee (BMG) offers its flavor coffee through Amazon. com and it is their number one flavor; Cinnamon Crumb Cake-flavor coffee became so popular that Albertsons in Texas included the brand inside the store (Friedman, 2004). The United States is the largest base of coffee drinkers and the second largest importer of coffee (Packed Facts, 2003). Therefore, it is evident that coffee is popular drink. Coffee is sold in airplanes, office buildings, hotel rooms, train terminals, schools, and grocery stores. Some grocery stores even offer coffee to drink while shopping. It is good having these locations offer coffee because it stimulates more coffee being drunk and later more purchases. It is also a good way to get non-coffee drinkers to try coffee and turn them into coffee drinkers. Coffee is sold in most stores, and even on the Internet. Having coffee sold in a variety of places ensures the consumers have easy access to purchase the product. Locations benefit by selling coffee because usually when coffee is being bought customers have a tendency to buy other products such as, milk, cream, sugar, or a mug. Numerous studies are indicting coffee can offer health benefits. It would be beneficial for the coffee industry to further these studies and use as a selling tool. The coffee bean is a plant base food, therefore offers rich antioxidants more so than broccoli and blueberries. These antioxidants can help prevent cancers, Parkinson disease, gallstones, and used for an antidepressant. Other nutrients inside coffee like potassium, niacin, magnesium, and chlorogenic acids can possibility help reduce diabetes (McAuliffe, 2005). Cautious coffee drinkers are concerned with how coffee effects the environment and farmers. Sun-grown coffee, uses fertilizers and pesticides, and contributes to deforestation; shade-grown is grown beneath a canopy of trees while preserving the forest. Organic coffee has increased 54% in 2005 through Nov 6, while non-organic coffee increased 8. 5%. Coffee drinkers want to be reassured that producers of coffee are treated fairly. Are farmers compensated fairly, no abuse, or child labor? Companies should be very weary of this issue because, if the source of coffee is not on good terms, if the farms are not healthy or unhappy employees than it could affect the industry in a negative way. Starbucks is a perfect example showing support to farmers by offering decent wages, and ways to help protect their asset (farms). Starbucks as teamed with the Fair Trade Certified Coffee by offering â€Å"Coffee of the Week† to bring awareness for the Fair Trade Certified Coffee. Other companies should take notice of the Fair Trade Certified Coffee, the Fair Trade Certified Coffee ensures farmers are properly compensated, health care, and economic stability of farms (Gimbl, 2005 & Chater, 2005). Overall Industry Attractiveness In order to decide if the coffee industry presents an attractive opportunity for earning good profits, it is important to base a conclusion on several factors. By drawing upon previous analysis of the intensity of competition, whether the impacts of the driving forces are positive or negative, the market positions of industry members as shown on the strategic group map, and also close examination of the industry’s key success factors an educated answer can be deduced. First, by examining the market size and growth potential the coffee industry presents a livelihood for over 20 million people worldwide with an estimated worldwide retail sales expected to grow by a compounded rate of 6. 9% from 2005-2010, reaching $48. 2 billion by 2010, according to The U. S. Market for Coffee and Ready-to-Drink Coffee [1]. Competitive forces in the industry point to growth through the development of product innovation and specializing in gourmet coffee and specialty drinks. â€Å"Sales of specialty coffee were $10 Billion in October of 2005 and expected to rise at a rate of 7% annually, while sales of traditional brands have been falling. † [9] This has increased rivalry among these firms as they struggle to maintain their market share. Competitive forces are conducive to rising industry profitability as long as companies continue to offer product innovation and stay ahead of the curve when it comes to the driving forces in the industry Degree of risk and uncertainty in industry’s future encompasses many issues. Coffee drinkers are many and are seemingly very loyal to their drink. Proof being that recently the coffee supply has been exceeding its demand, which has taken even more power away from the suppliers who must compete with growers from around the world. In addition several tentative studies show positive health benefits to coffee drinkers. With a trend in the United States to be more health conscious, the coffee industry has opportunity to capitalize on these finds. In contrast when examining the severity of problems facing the industry it is evident that although demand is growing the trend is that it is steadying off. Due to little differentiation and small increase in the price of coffee since 1996, companies have been forced to focus on increased product differentiation in areas such as specialty coffees; however, that too is steadying off in growth over the past couple of years. Possible strategic issues include customers increasingly loyal to certain brands, which possibly make it more difficult for smaller coffee companies to edge into large consumer base. Also coffee companies need to consider the growing demand of consumers in the ethical treatment of coffee workers and focus their attention to a coffee drinker who looks to drink it for its benefits and special offering in taste. Ultimately when drawing conclusions about the attractiveness of an industry, the perspective is important. It depends on the scope and breadth of a particular company. The attractiveness of the opportunities an industry presents depends heavily on whether a company has the resources and the competitive capabilities to secure them. A standard judgment of if an industry is profitable is if the industry’s overall profit prospects are above average, the industry environment is basically attractive; if industry profit prospects are below average, conditions are unattractive (Strickland III et al, 2004). However this analysis of the industry shows that the coffee industry has a strong future and to the right players offers an attractive business opportunity. Works Cited [1] 6 Mar. 2006 . [2] â€Å"Starbucks. † Starbucks, Inc.. 3 Mar. 2006 . [3] 1 Mar. 2006 . [4] 2 Mar. 2006 . [5] http://www. stagnito. com/fbr_beverage. asp [6] â€Å"Slow Roast†, John G. Rodwan Jr. NPN, National Petroleum News. Chicago: Mar 2005. Vol 97, Iss. 3; pg. 14, 1 pgs. [7] http://www. econstats. com/fut/xnyb_ew2. htm [8] Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www. bls. gov/cpi/cpi_dr. htm; Table Containing History of CPI-U U. S. All Items Indexes and Annual Percent Changes From 1913 to Present. [9] Coffee Drinkers and Their Habit, Business Week Online October 10, 2005 Marketing/Online Extra http://www.businessweek. com/magazine/content/05_41/b3954201. htm 12 Mar. 2006 Packaged Facts. â€Å"The U. S. Market for Coffee and Ready-to-Drink Coffee, 4th Edition. † (Nov 1, 2003). Packaged facts. 8 Feb 2006. < http://www. packagedfacts. com/pub/895867. html> Chater, Amanda. â€Å"SPECIALPERKS; THE BUZZ ABOUT SPECIALTY COFFEE IS ENLIVENING SALES IN AN OTHERWISE DECLINING CATEGORY. † (coffee markets). † Supermarket News (Dec 19, 2005): 41. InfoTrac OneFile. Thomson Gale. Middle Tennessee State University. 2 Feb 2006 http://find. galegroup. com/itx/infomark. do?&contentSet=IAC-Documents&type=retrieve&tabID=T002&prodId=ITOF&docId=A140760166&source=gale&srcprod=ITOF&userGroupName=tel_middleten&version=1. 0. McAuliffe, Kathleen. â€Å"Enjoy!. † U. S. News &World Report 139. 23 (Dec 19, 2005):67-68. InfoTrac Online. Thomson Gale. Middle Tennessee State University. 2 Feb 2006 http://find. galegroup. com/itx/infomark. do? &contentSet=IAC-Documents&type=retrieve&tabID=T002&prodid=ITOF&docId=A139695515&source=gale&srcprod=ITOF&userGroupName=tel_middleten&version=1. 0 Friedman, Susan. â€Å"Beyond cream & sugar: savvy Retailers recognize the value of flavored coffee. † Tea & Coffee Trade Journal 176. 3 (March 2004): 30(3). InfoTrac One File. Thomson Gale. Middle Tennessee State University. 2 Feb 2006 http://find. galegroup. com/itx/infomark. do? &contentSet=IAC-Documents&type=retrieve&tabID+T002&prodId=ITOF&docId=A114819506&source=gale&srcprod=ITOF&userGroupName=tel_middleten&verson=1. 0 Introducing Starbucks Cafe Estima Blend(TM). Fair Trade Certified(TM) Coffe. Business Wire. LOAD DATE: Oct 10, 2005. 23 Feb 20006. http://www. businesswire. com/cnn/sbux. shtml Strickland III, A. J. , Arthur A. Thompson Jr. , and John E. Gamble . Strategy Core Concepts, Analytical Tools, Readings. 2nd ed. Boston: Mc-Graw-Hill Irwin, 2004.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

The Criminal Responsible for the Deaths of Romeo and Juliet

In the days of old, a friar was a man to be respected and revered for his relationship with God. However there was the occasional servant of the Lord that would abuse this massive amount of respect and use it to obtain his wishes. A main character presented in Shakespeare’s The Tragedy of Romeo and Juliet, Friar Lawrence, is one of these untrustworthy Friars. He is, undoubtedly, responsible for the deaths of the Romeo and Juliet as a result of being too compassionate, manipulative, and deceiving.As a result of being too compassionate, Friar Lawrence makes rash decisions and is undoubtedly to blame for the tragedy of Romeo and Juliet. For instance, when Juliet discovers that she has no choice but be married to Paris, the Friar attempts to comfort her by saying that â€Å"he already knows [her] grief; / It strains [him] past the compass of [his] wits. / [He] hears [she] must, and nothing may prorogue it, on Thursday next be married to County Paris† (IV. i. 47-50). Friar L awrence proves to be a truly compassionate person, as shown with the usage of the hyperbole â€Å"past the compass of [his] wits†.Despite the intended exaggeration made by the Friar, this hyperbole proves itself to be true, later in the play, when Friar Lawrence makes many ineffective plots that only lead the star-crossed lovers closer to their deaths. The extent of Friar Lawrence’s compassion is shown, again, when Romeo threatens to kill himself after successfully ending the life of the Capulet, Tybalt. The Friar chides Romeo’s â€Å"rude unthankfulness† and explains that â€Å"the kind prince hath turned that black word â€Å"death† to â€Å"banishment†Ã¢â‚¬  (III. iii. 24-29).The Friar’s exalting tone toward the lightened punishment causes Romeo to reconsider taking his own life and keeps him alive. However, this compassion of keeping Romeo alive only leads to Juliet’s demise after Romeo regains his want to kill himself an d succeeds in doing just that. There is no doubt that Friar Lawrence has compassion, but the intensive compassion leads to rash decisions, eventually ending the lives of Romeo and Juliet. Along with an extreme compassion that proves to be detrimental, Friar Lawrence leads the fated couple to their deaths by being manipulative.One such example is shown as the Friar marries Romeo and Juliet when he comments that â€Å"by [their] leaves, [they] shall not stay alone / Till the Holy Church incorporate two in one† (II. ii. 35-37). Friar Lawrence hints with the broad statement â€Å"incorporate two in one† that he does not only want to incorporate Romeo and Juliet, but also the Capulet’s and Montague’s under the marriage of the lovers. The Friar, simply, only wants to unite the two families, of a seemingly never-ending feud, and uses Romeo and Juliet as pawns at the front line, in the chess game of fate.Manipulation is shown again when the Friar addresses this a rt of manipulation, earlier in the play, when he explains the various properties of herbs. He notes that the herbs are â€Å"nor aught so good but, strained from that fair use, / Revolts from true birth, stumbling on abuse† (II. ii. 19-20). Shakespeare uses Friar Lawrence’s knowledge of the manipulation of herbs as foreshadowing into the Friar’s extensive knowledge of manipulating people, as well. This quote explains how the Friar understands the art of manipulation and intends to obtain his goal of uniting the two families.Friar Lawrence does not hesitate to use his tact of manipulation, which causes the death of the fated lovers. Another ungodly skill possessed by the Friar is his ability to be very deceiving, which results in the death of the destined lovers. For example, after Juliet fakes her death, Friar Lawrence chides the Capulets by saying that they â€Å"love [their] child so ill / that [they] run mad seeing that she is well /†¦ [They should] Dry up [their] tears and stick [their] rosemary / on [the] fair corse /†¦ and bear her to church† (IV. . 75-81). Despite being a prominent man of God, The Friar can easily deceive without remorse, as made vastly apparent with this quote. This skill of deception brings the star-crossed lovers ever so closer to their deaths when the Friar makes the Capulet parents to arrive much faster and rush Juliet into killing herself. Deceiving traits by the Friar are shown, once again, when the Friar hatches the plot to fake Juliet’s death.He shares this idea with Juliet saying that she should â€Å"take thou this vial being then in bed, / And this distilling thou off;/ When presently thou all thy veins run / A cold and drowsy humor, for no pulse† (IV. i. 93-96). As the Friar becomes more desperate, he begins to hatch more plans that have only a slight possibility of success, like this one of putting Juliet into a deep sleep. The deceiving Friar again, is responsible for a plan that later proves to be responsible for the death of both Romeo and Juliet.The Friar’s skill of deception and his constant use of this skill leads to the downfall of Romeo and Juliet. As a result of too much compassion, manipulation, and deception, Friar Lawrence is completely at fault for the deaths of Romeo and Juliet. Despite his want to help Romeo and Juliet, many, if not all, of his plans were unsuccessful and were done without any thought of the consequences. Friar Lawrence abused his position of high respect, causing a devastating event that ended badly for the star-crossed lovers.

Friday, September 27, 2019

Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 107

Essay Example That is until one day when his desire uncoiled when he was offered a summer building job to carry out â€Å"real work†. He was willing to perform it precisely, when he reaches at the construction site, with no fear at all. It is clear that Rodriguez was not seeking for a summer job, rather a chance to work with his back and hands. His desire is to feel his body in a unique or new way; he wanted to know the meaning of real work, even if it lasted for a short time so long as he worked like hard for once. Just like men whose desire is to fulfill their sexual fantasies by performing in the City of Night, Rodriguez wanted to fulfill his erotic dream by trying to side with the working class, a task for himself and for his audience (Dunbar-Odom 37). As a simple laborer, Rodriguez had a positive attitude towards his contract. The work seemed simpler than his friends did and he had thought. He enjoyed doing it, since he says that he had many physical pleasures during the labor. Each day counted for him, as he woke up every morning with a new working spirit. During the day, his desire to work conquered all the barriers that came his way. Sometimes he could even do too much that his colleagues were amazed, but all was for the sake of fulfilling his fantasy (Rodriguez 275). During his shoveling work, he realized that he was not doing what was right. He was fooling himself by expecting to be admitted in the world of the laborer. He says, â€Å"I could not learn in three months what my father had meant by â€Å"real work,† to mean that what he had been doing up to that level was not sufficient enough to measure to what his father could recognize as hard work. He could not be pleased by the achievement of his son so far. He needed more experience and efforts and that for him to accomplish â€Å"real work,† he had to take quality time. According to his mother and father, â€Å"real work† means struggling with self-confidence to achieve

Extra credit history 198 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Extra credit history 198 - Essay Example The documentary initiates with genocide definition provided by the United Nations and against the definition the tales of the individuals are told. In 1915, the Turkish government dictated the eradication of all Armenians. Since the bloodshed was ordered by the government, it didn’t forbid the children and women of the Armenian community. The women were slaughtered and the children were forced to march towards Euphrates River so that they can be drowned. During this massacre, the river of Euphrates turned red with the Armenians’ blood and so the documentary had been named. Those who survived they narrate that Armenian in thousands of numbers were forced to move into the desert named Deir Zer, undressed and left there to perish in the blazing sun. Few of the Armenian Christians were provided the opportunity to convert from Christianity to Islam or they will be forced to death within the desert. And by availing this opportunity around 200,000 people converted to run away from death. 2. Paradise Now The documentary â€Å"Paradise Now† pursues two Palestinian friends Khaled and Said who had been associates since childhood. They reside in Nablus and they have been enrolled for suicide attacks in the capital city of Israel, â€Å"Tel Aviv†. ... In order to appear like Israelis, they shave off their beards and heads the day they were asked to do the attack. The documentary entails their story as they assume this attack as their visit to a wedding ceremony. They plan to attack a military checkpoint first and then as the police rushes to the point of attack the next blast was to be made. As they proceed towards Israel, they are checked by guards where Khaled belt is detected and therefore, he abandons his plan and provides his services to search Said. Said on the other hand, wandering in desperation attempts to explode him in a bus but then cancels his plan and then moves on where he finds a woman who reinforces his idea of suicide attack. Meanwhile Khaled succeeds in finding Said and tries to persuade him to shun his thought of attack but Said continues to pursue his target and at the end of the documentary he is shown in an Israeli military bus where he is looking here and there. The documentary has actually tried to picture the way a suicide bomber considers him to be on the right track (Abu-Assad and Beyer). 3. The Dreams of Sparrows The documentary, â€Å"The Dreams of Sparrows† pictures the post-war Iraq and has been prepared by a filmmaking group of Iraq. It was shot during the years 2003 and 2004 using a hand-held camera, comprising of various interviews of several Iraqi citizens on the streets and seeks their thoughts regarding the changes taking place around them. The documentary was initially posted on the internet while in 2005 it was made available on a DVD. It provides several distinct point of views of Iraqi citizens provided in interviews as some regarded American attack as a way of relief from the regime of Saddam Hussein and therefore give high regards to former United States President George

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Political Science Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Political Science - Essay Example They do not have to get intervention from state regarding taxes, tariffs, enforced monopolies and restrictive regulations. (laissez-faire principle; sourced from www.wikipedia.org). It is a fortunate one for private parties to be free from such matters, but for the citizens there are still taxes to be paid. Taxes would not be a big deal for people as long as they can afford to pay. Of course, it is determined from how stable their economic conditions sourced from their incomes. What has happened is that The United States taxes its citizens more lightly and as a result less money to be used for social programs. There is comparison since most west European countries spend more money on social programs. From the economic factors, it can be analyzed that when The United States government has decided to reduce its citizens` taxes, there might be economic instability. It can be seen mostly after war in Iraq (2003) that The United States economic condition decreases slowly and life conditio n of its people had not been as comfortable as it was used to be. Furthermore, the global crisis that has happened in recent times has an impact too. The United States citizens cannot afford certain levels of life standards like they used to have. The condition can be observed from how stagnancy occurred to mortgage and many banks were closed that makes more people become jobless. The tax reduction has been a relieving fact for The United States citizens, but since it gives impact to the social programs, a consequence prevails. In this case, social programs are ways for those who are unfortunate to get help and even have better living. When the money for the social programs is reduced, some people do not get benefit anymore. Analyzing this matter from the political side, basically it is not far from what happens in the economic factors. A political instability might occur when economic condition falls down moderately. For example, when the jobless number rises higher and higher, the re must be a shock therapy for its political condition. People would like to be frank to the government that an action to decrease problems is absolutely needed. Even though The United States has its â€Å"American Exceptionalism† which had made them be the strongest as ever, but as Barack Obama – the president of the United States – mentioned that â€Å"I see no contradiction between believing that America has a continued extraordinary role in leading the world towards peace and prosperity and recognizing that leadership is incumbent, depends on, our ability to create partnerships, we create partnerships because we can’t solve these problems alone†. (Barack Obama – April, 2009). It can be analyzed that although comparisons among countries are acceptable to be observed, but like The United States instability is also being influenced by the whole worlds. An agreement must be put to Obama`s statement that every country in this world should gat her to find solutions to any problems; including how to maintain the running of social programs in this global crisis situation. Cultural factor could be the least impact but also the unfortunate one to face this American Exceptionalism. Culture is the whole unity to define people and their origin. Culture has more to be shown to express people’s happiness. The very basic culture that American people have is Thanksgiving celebration. (Once again, it is needed to emphasize that the tax reduction does not always

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Case study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words - 4

Case Study Example The total numbers of the reserves that it can recover are estimated to be at three hundred and seven million tons of oil and the natural gas was estimates are approximately four hundred and eight five billions cubic meters (Exxon Neftegas Limited). The execution and development of this project have been motivated with the application and use of advance construction methods and technologies. Moreover, the application of such technologies and construction methods have led to reduced cost of operation for the general project development and as well led to minimized negative environmental impacts. Additionally, the project has managed to overcome most of its technical and environmental challenges; thus, meeting its set goals and objectives through application of the newly introduced technologies. Furthermore, the committed management team has successful transformed the project’s goals and objective into the success of the project through their committed submission to the project. However, the project has been faced with numerous challenges including complex regulatory rules, limited infrastructure, difficult logistics, and unskilled labor. Nonetheless, the management proper application of its efficient plans especially alon g the new technologies has led to successful completion of the project’s first phase (Exxon Neftegas Limited). The Sakhalin project is one of the largest foreign direct investments that are found in Russia. It had the objective of fulfilling the ever-growing energy demands in Russia and other parts of the world. The project managed to fulfill this objective or its aim since it produces and supply energy for both domestic consumption in Russia and exporting some of its energy to northeast Asia. Moreover, it helped Russia to consolidate its strategic position regarding the supply of energy in other parts of the world. In other words, the project made Russia to be a world energy supplier and be

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The Universal Experience of Being Different Assignment

The Universal Experience of Being Different - Assignment Example In the whole world, there about 4000 cultures, meaning there are about 4000 groups of individuals that identify themselves with each culture. Each group is characterized by unique language, names, membership of the culture, as well as, an agreement on what should be carried on to the next generation and so forth. In addition, it is also important to note that even members of the same culture may be different and feel different in the company of each other. For example, a poor man in the company of a rich man may feel uncomfortable regardless of them coming from the same culture. In America, the obvious being expected to feel different is a member of an ethnic group in the company of white Americans. In addition to cultural differences and the skin colour, there are other aspects that further separate the ethnic communities living America from the white Americans. These include economic status, their history, as well as, their population compared to that of white Americans. For example, an attempt to evaluate the experience of black Americans in America revealed that it was both compromising and hopeful. In conclusion, it is clear from the article that there is more in feeling different than self-identity and individualism. People of the different culture, skin colour, ethnic group, and economic levels feel different in the company of each other. These are all separate factors that cannot be generalized as either self-identify or individualism. It is, therefore, true to say that universal experience of being different in the human being is real and indeed human beings are different.  Ã‚  

Monday, September 23, 2019

Step 1 of 4 Paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Step 1 of 4 Paper - Essay Example How information flows from level to level in a company is also determined by the organizational structure. Decisions flow from top to down in a centralized structure while in a decentralized structure, making decisions is done at various different levels (Wailgum, 2007).Decentralized decision making should be preferred by managers because it gives the opportunity to the employees to participate in decision-making. This makes them have a sense of ownership of the company and, therefore, give their best. Companies can streamline their operations if they establish a hierarchical structure whose chain of command is clear. The organizational leadership structure should be able to provide direct supervision and regular feedback from employees (Lu, 2014). Corporate decision making allows all stakeholders be involved in decision making and their contributions valued. Autocratic leadership makes managers the sole decision makers and deters innovativeness as the creative employees do not get a room of implementing or sharing their ideas. Therefore, participative leadership which boosts the morale of employees because their contribution to the decision-making process is appreciated should be adopted by company heads. The success of any business is determined by the innovativeness of the company. Through innovation, companies bring into the market new products and services. Innovative methods assist companies reduce costs of operation and enhance customer satisfaction through quality improvement. Innovativeness can only be realized if creative employees are given room to share and implement their ideas. Leadership style used should support creativity and innovativeness among the employees to enhance the performance of their companies. Gilmore (2014) observes that the state of the art technology and network design has enabled Wal-Mart to track and predict inventory levels, manage customer service response logistics and relationships, develop more efficient

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Target based industry Essay Example for Free

Target based industry Essay How will you influence people to strive willingly for group objectives in your organization (Target based industry)? Apply your interpersonal influence through communication process towards attaining your specialized goals? Answer: Group objectives essentially mean that a group of individuals recruited into an organization have the same objectives to achieve in the same time frame. There can be many such groups in an organization having their own group objectives. For Example: A medical device company can have a group, whose objective is to carry out research and development in a selected field of medicine. Whereas in the same company there is a group, whose objective is to market the medical device to a target population and another group whose objective is to ensure particular number of sales per month for that device. Usually when such groups have 10 or more individuals, it is often noted that even though the group achieves their objectives successfully, there will always be a percentage of individuals who are not as efficient as the others. Hence these never strive willingly for the objectives because they know that in-spite of their low efforts or motivation, the objectives will eventually be achieved. This can discourage the others who are working hard and over a period of time the objectives will be difficult to achieve as demands increase and the efforts are submaximal from the team. Hence, it is vital to influence people to strive willingly in order to have a more efficient and successful team. Here are a few suggested ways that I would use to influence people to strive willingly in order to attain group objectives: a. Influencing intrinsic factors – Monetary incentives, bonuses, reasonable salaries. These are important as basic monetary requirements of an employee must be adequately fulfilled to ensure they remain loyal to the company and don’t go looking for better offers and work half – heartedly.

Saturday, September 21, 2019

Evolution as an Adaptation Essay Example for Free

Evolution as an Adaptation Essay The Chipping Sparrow is found across most of North America and eats mainly insects an seeds that are found in suburban areas and in farmland in the United States (Chipping Sparrow). Since the early 1990s, the feeding range of the Chipping Sparrow has included farms that grow genetically-modified grains, including the corn and wheat that are part of the Chipping Sparrows traditional diet (Genetically Altered Wheat Promises Higher Yields). Genetically-modified seeds are used to develop crops that are resistant to disease or pests, that use less water, or that are needed for specific requirements such as for pharmaceutical uses. While these crops may be helpful to humans, this change in the food supply could have important implications for the evolution of the Chipping Sparrow and other animals (Chrenkova, Sommer, Ceresnakova, et al, 2002). Although Chipping Sparrows share enough common traits to qualify as a unique species, differences still exist between individual Chipping Sparrows. Some of these differences might include metabolic differences that affect the individual birds digestive process. It is possible that the genetically-modified corn, for example, could be missing an enzyme that is essential to the Chipping Sparrows digestive process. If this happened, then the majority of Chipping Sparrows would not be able to break down the modified corn and would not benefit from eating it. The birds might feel full, but an essential part of their diet would be missing. Unless they could find another source of food, these Chipping Sparrows would eventually die of malnutrition. It is also possible that a small number of Chipping Sparrows could have some genetic metabolic abnormality that made it possible for them to digest the modified corn without this particular missing enzyme. In fact, it is even possible that this genetic abnormality in these sparrows digestive systems had always existed and that earlier generations of Chipping Sparrows who had this trait tended to have shortened life spans. If this had happened, then this digestive trait would have been passed along, but would only be present in a small number of the sparrows who would have been less likely to reproduce. If this was the case, then the change in the food supply could turn what had been a genetic liability into a genetic benefit. The Chipping Sparrows that could digest the modified corn would survive and would pass this trait along to their offspring. Those that did not have the trait would eventually either die or migrate. The fate of the Chipping Sparrows that remained would not be decided by luck, but would be the result of a genetic mutation that proved to be beneficial in their new environment. The change in the environment would effect the Chipping Sparrow population in stages. First, the majority of Chipping Sparrows that were unable to digest the modified corn would either leave or die, resulting in a severe drop in the Chipping Sparrow population. The sparrows that had the gene for the digestive trait would pass it along to their offspring. Even if this was a recessive gene, the odds of it being passed along to future generations would still increase as the number of non-adapted sparrows and their effect on the gene pool diminished. Instead of only one parent carrying the gene, which may have been the case in previous generations, it would become more likely that both parents would carry the gene for this particular trait. To summarize, the original population at time zero would have thrived on naturally produced corn. Individual members of this population, however, may have had what was the equivalent of a food allergy that prevented them from getting the full benefit of this natural food source. The change in the corn would have turned this genetic disorder into a genetic benefit which would have been passed along to future generations. Eventually, the surviving Chipping Sparrows would evolve into a species that thrives on genetically-modified corn and is unable to digest natural, unmodified corn. References Chipping Sparrow. Avianweb. com (2006).Retrieved May 25, 2008, from http://www. avianweb. com/chippingsparrow. html Chrenkova, M. , Sommer, A. , Ceresnakova, Z. , Nitrayova, S. , Prostredna, M. (2002). Nutritional evaluation of genetically modified maize corn performed on rats. Archives of Animal Nutrition,56 (3), p229-236. Retrieved May 25, 2008, from Academic Search Premier. Genetically Altered Wheat Promises Higher Yields. New York Times (May 28, 1992). Retrieved May 25, 2008, from http://query. nytimes. com/gst/fullpage. html? res=9E0CE4DF1039F93BA15756C0A964958260

Friday, September 20, 2019

Strategies for Disaster Risk Management

Strategies for Disaster Risk Management INTRODUCTION I. Background Natural disasters have always posed a threat to development. Developing countries are usually far less well placed than industrialised ones to deal effectively with hazards that occur out of the blue. The first priority must be to reduce peoples (men, women and young people) vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods and storms and to avoid the emergence of new risks, in order to secure the progress of development. Disaster risk management is therefore crucial to sustainable development. It is closely linked with the overarching Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing poverty (M D G 1); in many parts of the world this goal cannot be achieved without it. In its report â€Å"Towards Halving Poverty† the German Government again emphasised this link: â€Å"Disaster relief on its own is not enough. In order to save human lives effectively and protect individuals and economies from physical damage in the long term, everything possible must be done before a natural disaster occurs to minimise the impact. Disaster prevention is therefore an important part of any sustainable development strategy†. (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (B M Z), 2004: page32) In recent years the need for disaster risk management has increased as a result of the rise in the number of damaging natural events. Some global trends (such as increasing population pressure on natural resources in some regions, urbanisation and widening economic disparities) are likely to further amplify the risks arising from an increase in the number and intensity of hazardous natural events. As a result of climate change, disaster risk management is facing challenges on an unprecedented scale. In conjunction with these developments, we are seeing a growing risk of crises and conflicts, in particular those arising from competition for vital resources. By dealing appropriately and gender-sensitively with natural disasters and climate change, however, we can go some way to defusing the conflict potential. Disaster risk management is first and foremost the responsibility of the affected country. It is particularly important in countries exposed to major natural risks. In such countries, elements of disaster risk management should increasingly be incorporated as standard practice into national development strategies (such as poverty reduction strategies) and other local, national plans. This presupposes that the statutory and institutional framework required is in place. Entry points for effective action must be identified for each sector. The examples presented in this publication have shown that their education of disaster risks can be addressed at many levels. However, it is always important that the people potentially affected are sensitised and given the information they need, so that they can react promptly; they are directly involved at the scene of the event. Natural hazards and disasters are events that are frequently result in high death tolls and large economic losses which is now becoming a major concerned to international community because of large impact of life losses and economic losses in developing countries. Why is natural hazards and disasters occurring so frequently now a days and how did man increases vulnerability. Population growth, run away organization, high rise building, uses of limited rescores, environment damage etc are just some of the factor explaining the sources of frequent natural hazards which leads to human and material casualties in case of disaster. If there is a risk of natural hazard then large population area is most vulnerable and the impact of disaster will also be high. The traditional way to cope with disaster was using warning before disaster strikes and emergency relief after disaster occurs and the government agency would only play its role in coping disaster. This approach is adequate to reduce l osses in disaster to acceptable levels Due to frequent natural disaster taking place and large of life and economic losses, international community came to the point that by implanting â€Å"Community Base Management Approach† is a process in which at-risk communities are actively engaged in the identification, analysis, treatment, monitoring and evaluation of disaster risks in order to reduce their vulnerabilities and enhance their capacities Disasters can become uncontrollable, once the event has got underway. If the community were not well prepared, control over the disaster event would be usually lost during its occurrence. If each individual in the community is familiar with ways of coping and precautionary measures, then the disruption by a disaster can be reduced. This â€Å"Community Base Approach† where community plays an anchor role with the support of Government, non-government institution agencies. The involvement of the communities is the key aspect for the sustainability of community for disast er reduction. External agencies, like government, non-government organizations may begin and implement community level programs before and after disasters. However, such initiative many times discontinue once the external support is ended. There can be many reasons behind this lack of sustainability, some of which may be the lack of partnership, participation, empowerment and ownership of local communities. All communities have some vitally important assets to deal with disasters. These may include knowledge of disaster warning signs, locally safe and vulnerable areas, experience of past disasters, methods of survival and social relations that are often vitally important in coping with crisis. Local communities have an active part to play before and after disasters so it is therefore important to involve people in decision making on policies and strategies that should be followed for their development in the community. The objective of this management is to prepare community develop hazards mitigation plans before disaster strikes. An effective plan will improve communitys ability to deal with natural disasters and most efficient and effective ways to reduce losses to life and property. Preparing a plan will provide the following benefits to the community: Reduce public and private damage costs Reduce social, emotional, and economic disruption; Increase access to funding sources for hazard mitigation projects Improve ability to implement post-disaster recovery projects by using risk management tools. More number of lives can be saved during the first few hours after disaster has occurred through local response teams, before help arrives from elsewhere. The numerous problems of survival and health resulting from a disaster are dealt with more efficiently, if the community is active and well organized. The social and economic cost of natural disasters has increased in recent years due to population growth, change in land use patterns, migration and unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation and global climate change.[16] In addition to the loss of lives and major destruction of economic and social infrastructure, natural disasters set back poverty reduction programs and cause diversion of government funds to pay for reconstruction and recovery efforts. There has been little formal analysis of the longer-term impacts of disasters in the Philippines but annual infrastructure losses and related diversion of scarce public resources must ultimately have an impact on the countrys long-term sustainable development II. Research Questions Following are the three research questions on which I will conduct my research. In the first part, I will identify the hazards and their impact on third world countries and then I will analyze what are the risks associated with the natural disasters in third world countries. In the second part, I will illustrate the case to support the discussion above, and impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. 1. Research Methodology The research onion described by Mark Saunders, Philip Lewis and Adrian Thornhill (2006) is used to analyze the philosophy, approach and strategy of research. a) Philosophy The major philosophy used in this research used is ‘Realism. According to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), realism is a branch of epistemology which is similar to positivism in that it assumes a scientific approach to the development of knowledge. This assumption underpins the collection of data and the understanding of that data. Bhaskar (1989) argues that we can identify what we dont see through the practical and theoretical processes of the social sciences. The objective of the research is to assess the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. so ontology is not the right choice for this particular research as according to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), it is concerned with the nature of reality. b) Approach The research has employed inductive as well as deductive approach. Since, one of the main objectives of the research is to out the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries, therefore inductive approach has been used extensively. Only where there is a requirement of analyzing the quantitative data, deductive approach will be used. The research approach influences design and gives the researcher the opportunity to consider how each of the various approaches may contribute to, or limit, his study (Creswell, 2003). For research theory there are two main approaches which are mainly used i.e. deductive and inductive approach. Firstly the analysis of the collected data, and then a theory or hypothesis is formulated, this is inductive approach. In contrast, a deductive approach is where, after reviewing the existing theory, hypothesis is developed which is then tested by conducting a research (Bryman, and Bell 2007) The study for will follow Inductive approach for two reasons. In the first place the research involves observation of past disasters, impact of this disaster with s of death and economic losses and currently number of people living in prone disaster areas. In the second place, the inductive approach appears more appropriate to the purpose of this study which is to gather the problem facing to implementing disaster management plan and roles of public and private sector in making strategy and policies with sustainability of the plan. c) Strategy There are two types of research strategies i.e. qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative research strategy is the general orientation to conduct business research. It usually focuses on â€Å"words† instead of statistical analysis of data. It usually involves inductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. The main aim is to generate a theory. Interviewing the expatriate is the main purpose of this research (Bryman and Bell, 2007). On the other hand, quantitative research strategy focuses more on the â€Å"quantification† in collection and analysis of data. It usually involves deductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. Testing the theories in the main purpose in quantitative research (Bryman and Bell, 2007) Some common contrasts between qualitative and quantitative research. Qualitative Quantitative Words Numbers Point of views of participants Point of views of researchers Researcher close Researcher distant Theory emergent Theory testing Process Static Unstructured Structured Contextual understanding Generalized Rich, deep data Hard, reliable data Micro Macro Meaning Behaviour Natural settings Artificial settings (Source: Bryman and Bell, 2007: 426) The strategy of this research will maintain both strategy but quantitative will be more domains on qualitative strategy. Quantitative strategy will provide base on which qualitative strategy will dependable on. According to Burgess, 1982 â€Å"There are several reasons for using the qualitative research. First reason is the belief of the researcher which is based upon the research experience. The other important point is that most researchers use this method, hoping that their work has direct or potential relevance for academic as well as non-academic audiences. All methods have advantages and disadvantages but some methods are still better than the other in order to obtain primary data. Small numbers of participants are used to obtain primary data in this research. In-depth interview is a form of conversation†. (Burgess, 1982) d) Data Analysis Approach The research is mainly comprised of qualitative data and will be inductive in nature; hence analytical induction approach will be used to make the critical remarks. Other theories do not cope with the philosophy, approach and strategy of the research and cannot be used for that reason. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools help to answer questions like who is vulnerable, where they are and why they are vulnerable. GIS was used to identify vulnerable areas using statistical tools. Although the data generated are usually integrated in the form of tables, graphs and/or charts, maps have the advantage of presenting data in an easily accessible, readily visible and eye-catching manner. The resulting maps combine information from different sectors to provide an immediately comprehensive picture of the geographical distribution of vulnerable group. By providing a visual overview on the major issues, maps highlight gaps and shortfalls in information and thus areas needing attention. A GIS based approach is helpful for highly disaggregated data; it can easily perform statistical analysis as well as graphic presentation. 2. Sampling Sample population consists of a number of third world countries such as India, Bangaldesh and Pakistan which are the focus of some of the key disaster in recent years will be under the main focus. Because of the special nature of this research, the data collection points are huge. Henry (1990) advised against using probability sampling technique for sample population of less than 50. Because of the short time span and financial constraints the research will employ homogenous sampling technique. Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007) argue that homogenous sampling technique focuses on one sub group in which all the sample members are similar. This will help us to cover the topic in detail. 3. Data Collection The research employees both qualitative and quantitative data techniques to draw conclusions. However, main emphasis will be given to collect and analyze the qualitative data. The plan of the research will be mainly to use primary data collected from both primary and secondary sources. In this approach different historical data were used to point out the areas and communities which experienced the disaster situation in the past and their present risk and degree of vulnerability. This is more like, learning from past mistake and applying new strategy and plan which was missing in the past. This approach is very helpful in making strategy, determining policies, identifying natural hazard area and communities and implanting plan. According to Jackson (1994) the value of a research is related to its data collection methods and importantly, whether or not it includes both secondary and primary data. Data for the study were collected in two sources: primary and secondary sources. Both primary and secondary data sources were analyzed together to strengths the material and minimize their weaknesses by combining them in respectable way. There are many methods to collect the primary data, but this research will more focus on Literature review, case studies, bibliography, questionnaire and GIS techniques. All these method can be qualitative and quantitative in nature Mostly secondary data of this study included records and latest reports available from the CRED disaster database. Other sources such as articles, textbooks, journals, annual reports, websites etc were also very helpful and used to support reports. Two types of data were used for obtaining data from different reports. Historic data and GIS (geographic Information System) based mapping data. a) Secondary Sources of Data Secondary data will be of utmost importance in this research. Information will be acquired from reliable sources. Priority will be given to government sources in order to provide accurate information. Online website such as Business Monitor Online will be used comprehensively because they contain most up-to-date information. Journals and articles will be used extensively as well because explanation of data from these sources will be more accurate. This research will also include statistical analysis where information will be easily accessible from company reports, IMF Reports, World Bank Reports and government websites. 4. Limitations of the Research There will be a lot of limitations and restrictions in carrying out the desired research. There are limitations associated with the available and up to date data on the third world countries. The questionnaire in research project is to support findings which will be drawn from secondary data but insufficient funds and time restriction may hold back the collection of primary data. The qualitative data analysis also poses threat because it may involve human judgment errors. 3. Literature Review 3.1 Introduction In this chapter the objectives of the study will focus on the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. Research of this mapping is mapped on the base of district level which covers whole region of South Asia. District is divided according to Administrative division of its related country. So the size, population, geological location and climate condition will vary each other although it is situated in same provinces. The mapping of these districts is related to high and medium level of risk to natural events is included in this table. Some district has been promoted to disaster prone district although there have been no evidence of such natural events in past but due to certain factors like rises of sea level, earth quake zone, change in climate condition etc, makes these districts highly exposed to natural events in future. Such as Maldives, although there have been no evidence of tsunami for past 100 years but due to rise in sea lev el and located in earth quake zone whole Maldives is at high risk to flood and tsunami. This table is made on the bases of related to human life and economic losses. So Natural event like wild fire which is very frequent in Nepal and Burma has been excluded from the table because the impact on human lifes and economic losses are very low, although its impact on environmental is very high. 3.2 Disaster The term disaster can be defined as A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources. This notion of disaster draws a distinction between sudden and slow onset disasters. Amongst natural disasters extreme droughts are the only ones that are slow onset by nature. The causes and effects of a drought disaster are far more difficult to ascertain than sudden natural events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or landslides. Due to the gradual nature of the process, often taking place over months and even years, the causes are more complex and it is often only possible to identify the effects indirectly. However, not every extreme natural event is a disaster. A volcanic eruption in an unoccupied area is a natural event but not a disaster. Floods can also have many beneficial effects the soil is supplied with fresh nutrients and made more fertile again, resulting in higher yields. So, disasters always have adverse impacts but specific approaches to them must cater for the dual nature of such events, i.e. disaster risk management searches to maintain the positive impacts while reducing the adverse consequences of extreme natural events. 3.2 Disaster Risk Management Technical Cooperation defines disaster risk management as a series of actions (programmes, projects and/or measures) and instruments expressly aimed at reducing disaster risk in endangered regions, and mitigating the extent of disasters. Disaster risk management includes risk assessment, disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster preparedness. It is used in the international debate to underscore the current trend of taking a proactive approach to hazards posed by extreme natural phenomena. The intention is a comprehensive reduction in disaster risk accounting for all the factors that contribute to risk (risk management), as opposed to a focus on each individual danger. Disaster risk management consists of the following elements: I. Risk Analysis II. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation III. Disaster Preparedness and IV. Disaster Preventive Reconstruction There is a risk of natural disaster when a society is exposed to natural hazards but lack adequate means and ability to protect itself from potential negative impacts i.e. vulnerability. The risk management process analyzes the natural hazard in relation to the societys vulnerability, in order to first evaluate potential damage and losses. This involves calculating the probability that a natural hazard will occur, identifying vulnerability factors in society, drawing up damage scenarios and evaluating measures for rapid reconstruction in the even of a disaster. A societys ability to continue to function while dealing with a hazard is known as its resilience. Prevention and mitigation covers activities whose long term aim is to mitigate the possible adverse impacts of a natural even and its consequences and provide permanent protection against its effects. Prevention and mitigation measures may be constructional and non material. The process of preparedness enables the country to resp ond effectively in case of an imminent disaster. Important elements in the process of preparedness include making the emergency plans, the availability of rescue and emergency services, emergency medical care, rapid and efficient transmission of warnings and the availability of means of communication. An important component of preparedness is the early waning system which significantly reduces the impact of disaster. A good early warning system will promptly identify and assess a hazard. Warnings are issued to the affected population and institutions, who respond appropriately. Disaster preventive reconstruction aims to draw appropriate lessons from the natural disaster and to include disaster reduction criteria and measures directly in the reconstruction process. Disaster Risk Management Process 3.3 Vulnerability of South Asian Countries to Disasters Vulnerability can be defined as the inadequate means or ability to protect oneself against the adverse impacts of natural events and, on the other hand, to recover quickly from their effects. The South Asian countries of the world are vulnerable to a number of factors. These factors comprise of very diverse, often mutually reciprocal, factors that have to be taken into account to determine the vulnerability of a family, a village or a country. The main vulnerability factors of developing countries to disasters are summarized below: * Political-Institutional Factors One of the important vulnerable factors of developing countries to natural disaster is political and institutional factor. The role of legislation is lacking and also it is not commensurate with the hazard or is not implemented (regional development and land use planning, building regulations). The personnel and financial resources available for disaster risk management and preparedness are inadequate. Roles are not properly or clearly assigned and there is a lack of coordination in and amongst the responsible institutions (including centralism: insufficient power for local actors) in developing countries. The political culture is conducive to vested interests and corruption, which hampers consistent disaster risk management (e.g. in the building trade) and effective disaster preparedness. The Democratic institutions in developing countries are underdeveloped and also low level of participation of the population in democratic processes diminishes their self-help capabilities is very low. Also the mechanisms and instruments for spreading financial risks are lacking or inadequate (e.g. disaster funds, insurance). A culture of prevention is obstructed or insufficiently promoted. All of these above mentioned make the developing nation more vulnerable to the natural disasters. * Economic factors Another important vulnerable factor of developing countries to natural disaster is then economic factor. In developing countries the financial resources are insufficient for disaster risk management (e.g. for flood protection infrastructure). Also the level of poverty in general limits the self-help capabilities of large parts of the population, although very effective traditional mechanisms to cope with disasters still exist in many developing countries. In the developing countries poverty increasingly compels people to settle in endangered areas (on riverbanks and steep slopes, in gulleys or ravines or on the slopes of volcanoes). Partly through environmental degradation (e.g. unofficial garbage dumps or slash-and-burn clearance), poor people often contribute to their own higher disaster risk. The economies of developing countries also depend on a few products (low level of diversification) and the danger is particularly great if these sectors are vulnerable to disaster (e.g. agric ulture). Not enough account is taken of the influence of economic activities on disaster risk (e.g. consumption of natural resources). * Sociocultural factors Socio cultural factor also play an important role in making the developing countries vulnerable to natural disasters. In developing countries due to poor education and insufficient knowledge of the cause-effect matrix, people are less able to respond appropriately in a changing environment. Also fatalism is widespread as a consequence of the belief that natural disasters are willed by God and are therefore inevitable. In developing countries the tradition of slash-and-burn clearance or the application of out-dated production methods can result in greater vulnerability for people and their property. On the other hand it may result in greater hazard due to the adverse impact on the natural environment (e.g. erosion through deforestation). The population is not prepared to engage in mutual support schemes and organize themselves in order to negotiate competing interests in the search for greater levels of general welfare. These political, economic and cultural factors are interconnected in a complex way. They have a reciprocal relationship and often compound each other. Progress in individual aspects, therefore, may well also have a positive effect on other vulnerability factors. A general improvement in school education, for instance, can be expected to help reduce poverty, facilitate the application of appropriate production methods and raise organizational abilities. This in turn can motivate people for prevention, thus generating a positive influence on the political factors through greater participation. 3.4 Impact and Threat of Climate Change The major impacts and threats of global warming are well-known. Recent increase in global temperature as already experienced intensity and extreme events, for example frequent occurrence of flood and intensity of heat wave. On the other hand global warming will increase melting water from glaciers and ice sheets which will cause sea level to rise and also has the potential to influence global patterns of ocean circulation respectively. This causes thermal expansion of the oceans. Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture, food security, human health, global ecosystems, biodiversity and coastal zones. Some of the impact and threat had already been experienced and if this continued in current way which will affect the global ecosystem in the following way. Impact Threats 1. Changes in rainfall pattern 1. Will lead to severe shortage of water and causes drought around the globe 2. Will increase average rainfall and causes severe flooding around the globe. 3. It will have unpleasant impact on agriculture and traditional subsistence-based agriculture. This becomes more vulnerable and difficult which will eventually affecting the economic well-being of the local famers. 2. Melting of glaciers 1. Many rivers and lakes formed by melting of glacier water will grow in size and causes flooding recently which pose threat to nearby villages but very soon when there will be no glacial melt, this causes them to dry up and spread drought. 2. If the melting of glaciers continues on the current rate, all Farmlands which depend on glacial water will dry up and it will lead up to scarcity of food. 3. Sea level will rise and entire communities living on coastal zone always pose threat from increasing sea water level. 4. Many animals, birds, and fish that depend on fresh melting water from glaciers for survival will either reduce in numbers or get wiped out over a period of time. 3. Change in regional temperature Change in climate patterns will cause shift in crop growing seasons which affects food security. Crops will tend to fail or become unbeneficial where conditions are currently marginal for their production but on the other hand crops may tend to grow successfully in other area where conditions are suitable and has become marginal for other crops. 2. Increase in temperature will speed up the life cycles of both the mosquito and the disease viruses. This will produce smaller adult mosquitoes to feed more often to develop an egg batch, which in turn increases the chances for disease transmission which will put more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. 3. Temperature increases will potentially accelerate rates of extinction for many habitats and species (up to 30% with a 2 ° C rise in temperature). It will also affect coral reefs, boreal, forests and mountain habitats. 4. Increasing sea levels 1. It will greater the risk of storm surge, inundation and wave damage to coastlines, particularly in small island states and countries with low lying deltas. 2. Fresh underground water on coastal lines will get polluted with salty sea water making it unfit for drinking or irrigation Who is most Vulnerable to natural hazard? 98% of those killed and affected by natural disasters come from developing countries, underlining the link between poverty and vulnerability to disaster. Rich countries have a far greater ability to reduce the effects of extreme weather events (such as floods and droughts) than developing countries. Proof of this can be found in statistics produced by the Red Cross, which reveal that 22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed nations, 145 die per disaster in nations of medium human development. By 2025 over half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and storms. (World Disaster report, 2001) Natural hazards are a part of life. But hazards only become disasters when peoples lives and livelihoods are swept away. The vulnerability of communities is growing due to human activities that lead to increased poverty, greater urban dens Strategies for Disaster Risk Management Strategies for Disaster Risk Management INTRODUCTION I. Background Natural disasters have always posed a threat to development. Developing countries are usually far less well placed than industrialised ones to deal effectively with hazards that occur out of the blue. The first priority must be to reduce peoples (men, women and young people) vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods and storms and to avoid the emergence of new risks, in order to secure the progress of development. Disaster risk management is therefore crucial to sustainable development. It is closely linked with the overarching Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing poverty (M D G 1); in many parts of the world this goal cannot be achieved without it. In its report â€Å"Towards Halving Poverty† the German Government again emphasised this link: â€Å"Disaster relief on its own is not enough. In order to save human lives effectively and protect individuals and economies from physical damage in the long term, everything possible must be done before a natural disaster occurs to minimise the impact. Disaster prevention is therefore an important part of any sustainable development strategy†. (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (B M Z), 2004: page32) In recent years the need for disaster risk management has increased as a result of the rise in the number of damaging natural events. Some global trends (such as increasing population pressure on natural resources in some regions, urbanisation and widening economic disparities) are likely to further amplify the risks arising from an increase in the number and intensity of hazardous natural events. As a result of climate change, disaster risk management is facing challenges on an unprecedented scale. In conjunction with these developments, we are seeing a growing risk of crises and conflicts, in particular those arising from competition for vital resources. By dealing appropriately and gender-sensitively with natural disasters and climate change, however, we can go some way to defusing the conflict potential. Disaster risk management is first and foremost the responsibility of the affected country. It is particularly important in countries exposed to major natural risks. In such countries, elements of disaster risk management should increasingly be incorporated as standard practice into national development strategies (such as poverty reduction strategies) and other local, national plans. This presupposes that the statutory and institutional framework required is in place. Entry points for effective action must be identified for each sector. The examples presented in this publication have shown that their education of disaster risks can be addressed at many levels. However, it is always important that the people potentially affected are sensitised and given the information they need, so that they can react promptly; they are directly involved at the scene of the event. Natural hazards and disasters are events that are frequently result in high death tolls and large economic losses which is now becoming a major concerned to international community because of large impact of life losses and economic losses in developing countries. Why is natural hazards and disasters occurring so frequently now a days and how did man increases vulnerability. Population growth, run away organization, high rise building, uses of limited rescores, environment damage etc are just some of the factor explaining the sources of frequent natural hazards which leads to human and material casualties in case of disaster. If there is a risk of natural hazard then large population area is most vulnerable and the impact of disaster will also be high. The traditional way to cope with disaster was using warning before disaster strikes and emergency relief after disaster occurs and the government agency would only play its role in coping disaster. This approach is adequate to reduce l osses in disaster to acceptable levels Due to frequent natural disaster taking place and large of life and economic losses, international community came to the point that by implanting â€Å"Community Base Management Approach† is a process in which at-risk communities are actively engaged in the identification, analysis, treatment, monitoring and evaluation of disaster risks in order to reduce their vulnerabilities and enhance their capacities Disasters can become uncontrollable, once the event has got underway. If the community were not well prepared, control over the disaster event would be usually lost during its occurrence. If each individual in the community is familiar with ways of coping and precautionary measures, then the disruption by a disaster can be reduced. This â€Å"Community Base Approach† where community plays an anchor role with the support of Government, non-government institution agencies. The involvement of the communities is the key aspect for the sustainability of community for disast er reduction. External agencies, like government, non-government organizations may begin and implement community level programs before and after disasters. However, such initiative many times discontinue once the external support is ended. There can be many reasons behind this lack of sustainability, some of which may be the lack of partnership, participation, empowerment and ownership of local communities. All communities have some vitally important assets to deal with disasters. These may include knowledge of disaster warning signs, locally safe and vulnerable areas, experience of past disasters, methods of survival and social relations that are often vitally important in coping with crisis. Local communities have an active part to play before and after disasters so it is therefore important to involve people in decision making on policies and strategies that should be followed for their development in the community. The objective of this management is to prepare community develop hazards mitigation plans before disaster strikes. An effective plan will improve communitys ability to deal with natural disasters and most efficient and effective ways to reduce losses to life and property. Preparing a plan will provide the following benefits to the community: Reduce public and private damage costs Reduce social, emotional, and economic disruption; Increase access to funding sources for hazard mitigation projects Improve ability to implement post-disaster recovery projects by using risk management tools. More number of lives can be saved during the first few hours after disaster has occurred through local response teams, before help arrives from elsewhere. The numerous problems of survival and health resulting from a disaster are dealt with more efficiently, if the community is active and well organized. The social and economic cost of natural disasters has increased in recent years due to population growth, change in land use patterns, migration and unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation and global climate change.[16] In addition to the loss of lives and major destruction of economic and social infrastructure, natural disasters set back poverty reduction programs and cause diversion of government funds to pay for reconstruction and recovery efforts. There has been little formal analysis of the longer-term impacts of disasters in the Philippines but annual infrastructure losses and related diversion of scarce public resources must ultimately have an impact on the countrys long-term sustainable development II. Research Questions Following are the three research questions on which I will conduct my research. In the first part, I will identify the hazards and their impact on third world countries and then I will analyze what are the risks associated with the natural disasters in third world countries. In the second part, I will illustrate the case to support the discussion above, and impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. 1. Research Methodology The research onion described by Mark Saunders, Philip Lewis and Adrian Thornhill (2006) is used to analyze the philosophy, approach and strategy of research. a) Philosophy The major philosophy used in this research used is ‘Realism. According to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), realism is a branch of epistemology which is similar to positivism in that it assumes a scientific approach to the development of knowledge. This assumption underpins the collection of data and the understanding of that data. Bhaskar (1989) argues that we can identify what we dont see through the practical and theoretical processes of the social sciences. The objective of the research is to assess the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. so ontology is not the right choice for this particular research as according to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), it is concerned with the nature of reality. b) Approach The research has employed inductive as well as deductive approach. Since, one of the main objectives of the research is to out the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries, therefore inductive approach has been used extensively. Only where there is a requirement of analyzing the quantitative data, deductive approach will be used. The research approach influences design and gives the researcher the opportunity to consider how each of the various approaches may contribute to, or limit, his study (Creswell, 2003). For research theory there are two main approaches which are mainly used i.e. deductive and inductive approach. Firstly the analysis of the collected data, and then a theory or hypothesis is formulated, this is inductive approach. In contrast, a deductive approach is where, after reviewing the existing theory, hypothesis is developed which is then tested by conducting a research (Bryman, and Bell 2007) The study for will follow Inductive approach for two reasons. In the first place the research involves observation of past disasters, impact of this disaster with s of death and economic losses and currently number of people living in prone disaster areas. In the second place, the inductive approach appears more appropriate to the purpose of this study which is to gather the problem facing to implementing disaster management plan and roles of public and private sector in making strategy and policies with sustainability of the plan. c) Strategy There are two types of research strategies i.e. qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative research strategy is the general orientation to conduct business research. It usually focuses on â€Å"words† instead of statistical analysis of data. It usually involves inductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. The main aim is to generate a theory. Interviewing the expatriate is the main purpose of this research (Bryman and Bell, 2007). On the other hand, quantitative research strategy focuses more on the â€Å"quantification† in collection and analysis of data. It usually involves deductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. Testing the theories in the main purpose in quantitative research (Bryman and Bell, 2007) Some common contrasts between qualitative and quantitative research. Qualitative Quantitative Words Numbers Point of views of participants Point of views of researchers Researcher close Researcher distant Theory emergent Theory testing Process Static Unstructured Structured Contextual understanding Generalized Rich, deep data Hard, reliable data Micro Macro Meaning Behaviour Natural settings Artificial settings (Source: Bryman and Bell, 2007: 426) The strategy of this research will maintain both strategy but quantitative will be more domains on qualitative strategy. Quantitative strategy will provide base on which qualitative strategy will dependable on. According to Burgess, 1982 â€Å"There are several reasons for using the qualitative research. First reason is the belief of the researcher which is based upon the research experience. The other important point is that most researchers use this method, hoping that their work has direct or potential relevance for academic as well as non-academic audiences. All methods have advantages and disadvantages but some methods are still better than the other in order to obtain primary data. Small numbers of participants are used to obtain primary data in this research. In-depth interview is a form of conversation†. (Burgess, 1982) d) Data Analysis Approach The research is mainly comprised of qualitative data and will be inductive in nature; hence analytical induction approach will be used to make the critical remarks. Other theories do not cope with the philosophy, approach and strategy of the research and cannot be used for that reason. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools help to answer questions like who is vulnerable, where they are and why they are vulnerable. GIS was used to identify vulnerable areas using statistical tools. Although the data generated are usually integrated in the form of tables, graphs and/or charts, maps have the advantage of presenting data in an easily accessible, readily visible and eye-catching manner. The resulting maps combine information from different sectors to provide an immediately comprehensive picture of the geographical distribution of vulnerable group. By providing a visual overview on the major issues, maps highlight gaps and shortfalls in information and thus areas needing attention. A GIS based approach is helpful for highly disaggregated data; it can easily perform statistical analysis as well as graphic presentation. 2. Sampling Sample population consists of a number of third world countries such as India, Bangaldesh and Pakistan which are the focus of some of the key disaster in recent years will be under the main focus. Because of the special nature of this research, the data collection points are huge. Henry (1990) advised against using probability sampling technique for sample population of less than 50. Because of the short time span and financial constraints the research will employ homogenous sampling technique. Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007) argue that homogenous sampling technique focuses on one sub group in which all the sample members are similar. This will help us to cover the topic in detail. 3. Data Collection The research employees both qualitative and quantitative data techniques to draw conclusions. However, main emphasis will be given to collect and analyze the qualitative data. The plan of the research will be mainly to use primary data collected from both primary and secondary sources. In this approach different historical data were used to point out the areas and communities which experienced the disaster situation in the past and their present risk and degree of vulnerability. This is more like, learning from past mistake and applying new strategy and plan which was missing in the past. This approach is very helpful in making strategy, determining policies, identifying natural hazard area and communities and implanting plan. According to Jackson (1994) the value of a research is related to its data collection methods and importantly, whether or not it includes both secondary and primary data. Data for the study were collected in two sources: primary and secondary sources. Both primary and secondary data sources were analyzed together to strengths the material and minimize their weaknesses by combining them in respectable way. There are many methods to collect the primary data, but this research will more focus on Literature review, case studies, bibliography, questionnaire and GIS techniques. All these method can be qualitative and quantitative in nature Mostly secondary data of this study included records and latest reports available from the CRED disaster database. Other sources such as articles, textbooks, journals, annual reports, websites etc were also very helpful and used to support reports. Two types of data were used for obtaining data from different reports. Historic data and GIS (geographic Information System) based mapping data. a) Secondary Sources of Data Secondary data will be of utmost importance in this research. Information will be acquired from reliable sources. Priority will be given to government sources in order to provide accurate information. Online website such as Business Monitor Online will be used comprehensively because they contain most up-to-date information. Journals and articles will be used extensively as well because explanation of data from these sources will be more accurate. This research will also include statistical analysis where information will be easily accessible from company reports, IMF Reports, World Bank Reports and government websites. 4. Limitations of the Research There will be a lot of limitations and restrictions in carrying out the desired research. There are limitations associated with the available and up to date data on the third world countries. The questionnaire in research project is to support findings which will be drawn from secondary data but insufficient funds and time restriction may hold back the collection of primary data. The qualitative data analysis also poses threat because it may involve human judgment errors. 3. Literature Review 3.1 Introduction In this chapter the objectives of the study will focus on the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. Research of this mapping is mapped on the base of district level which covers whole region of South Asia. District is divided according to Administrative division of its related country. So the size, population, geological location and climate condition will vary each other although it is situated in same provinces. The mapping of these districts is related to high and medium level of risk to natural events is included in this table. Some district has been promoted to disaster prone district although there have been no evidence of such natural events in past but due to certain factors like rises of sea level, earth quake zone, change in climate condition etc, makes these districts highly exposed to natural events in future. Such as Maldives, although there have been no evidence of tsunami for past 100 years but due to rise in sea lev el and located in earth quake zone whole Maldives is at high risk to flood and tsunami. This table is made on the bases of related to human life and economic losses. So Natural event like wild fire which is very frequent in Nepal and Burma has been excluded from the table because the impact on human lifes and economic losses are very low, although its impact on environmental is very high. 3.2 Disaster The term disaster can be defined as A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources. This notion of disaster draws a distinction between sudden and slow onset disasters. Amongst natural disasters extreme droughts are the only ones that are slow onset by nature. The causes and effects of a drought disaster are far more difficult to ascertain than sudden natural events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or landslides. Due to the gradual nature of the process, often taking place over months and even years, the causes are more complex and it is often only possible to identify the effects indirectly. However, not every extreme natural event is a disaster. A volcanic eruption in an unoccupied area is a natural event but not a disaster. Floods can also have many beneficial effects the soil is supplied with fresh nutrients and made more fertile again, resulting in higher yields. So, disasters always have adverse impacts but specific approaches to them must cater for the dual nature of such events, i.e. disaster risk management searches to maintain the positive impacts while reducing the adverse consequences of extreme natural events. 3.2 Disaster Risk Management Technical Cooperation defines disaster risk management as a series of actions (programmes, projects and/or measures) and instruments expressly aimed at reducing disaster risk in endangered regions, and mitigating the extent of disasters. Disaster risk management includes risk assessment, disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster preparedness. It is used in the international debate to underscore the current trend of taking a proactive approach to hazards posed by extreme natural phenomena. The intention is a comprehensive reduction in disaster risk accounting for all the factors that contribute to risk (risk management), as opposed to a focus on each individual danger. Disaster risk management consists of the following elements: I. Risk Analysis II. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation III. Disaster Preparedness and IV. Disaster Preventive Reconstruction There is a risk of natural disaster when a society is exposed to natural hazards but lack adequate means and ability to protect itself from potential negative impacts i.e. vulnerability. The risk management process analyzes the natural hazard in relation to the societys vulnerability, in order to first evaluate potential damage and losses. This involves calculating the probability that a natural hazard will occur, identifying vulnerability factors in society, drawing up damage scenarios and evaluating measures for rapid reconstruction in the even of a disaster. A societys ability to continue to function while dealing with a hazard is known as its resilience. Prevention and mitigation covers activities whose long term aim is to mitigate the possible adverse impacts of a natural even and its consequences and provide permanent protection against its effects. Prevention and mitigation measures may be constructional and non material. The process of preparedness enables the country to resp ond effectively in case of an imminent disaster. Important elements in the process of preparedness include making the emergency plans, the availability of rescue and emergency services, emergency medical care, rapid and efficient transmission of warnings and the availability of means of communication. An important component of preparedness is the early waning system which significantly reduces the impact of disaster. A good early warning system will promptly identify and assess a hazard. Warnings are issued to the affected population and institutions, who respond appropriately. Disaster preventive reconstruction aims to draw appropriate lessons from the natural disaster and to include disaster reduction criteria and measures directly in the reconstruction process. Disaster Risk Management Process 3.3 Vulnerability of South Asian Countries to Disasters Vulnerability can be defined as the inadequate means or ability to protect oneself against the adverse impacts of natural events and, on the other hand, to recover quickly from their effects. The South Asian countries of the world are vulnerable to a number of factors. These factors comprise of very diverse, often mutually reciprocal, factors that have to be taken into account to determine the vulnerability of a family, a village or a country. The main vulnerability factors of developing countries to disasters are summarized below: * Political-Institutional Factors One of the important vulnerable factors of developing countries to natural disaster is political and institutional factor. The role of legislation is lacking and also it is not commensurate with the hazard or is not implemented (regional development and land use planning, building regulations). The personnel and financial resources available for disaster risk management and preparedness are inadequate. Roles are not properly or clearly assigned and there is a lack of coordination in and amongst the responsible institutions (including centralism: insufficient power for local actors) in developing countries. The political culture is conducive to vested interests and corruption, which hampers consistent disaster risk management (e.g. in the building trade) and effective disaster preparedness. The Democratic institutions in developing countries are underdeveloped and also low level of participation of the population in democratic processes diminishes their self-help capabilities is very low. Also the mechanisms and instruments for spreading financial risks are lacking or inadequate (e.g. disaster funds, insurance). A culture of prevention is obstructed or insufficiently promoted. All of these above mentioned make the developing nation more vulnerable to the natural disasters. * Economic factors Another important vulnerable factor of developing countries to natural disaster is then economic factor. In developing countries the financial resources are insufficient for disaster risk management (e.g. for flood protection infrastructure). Also the level of poverty in general limits the self-help capabilities of large parts of the population, although very effective traditional mechanisms to cope with disasters still exist in many developing countries. In the developing countries poverty increasingly compels people to settle in endangered areas (on riverbanks and steep slopes, in gulleys or ravines or on the slopes of volcanoes). Partly through environmental degradation (e.g. unofficial garbage dumps or slash-and-burn clearance), poor people often contribute to their own higher disaster risk. The economies of developing countries also depend on a few products (low level of diversification) and the danger is particularly great if these sectors are vulnerable to disaster (e.g. agric ulture). Not enough account is taken of the influence of economic activities on disaster risk (e.g. consumption of natural resources). * Sociocultural factors Socio cultural factor also play an important role in making the developing countries vulnerable to natural disasters. In developing countries due to poor education and insufficient knowledge of the cause-effect matrix, people are less able to respond appropriately in a changing environment. Also fatalism is widespread as a consequence of the belief that natural disasters are willed by God and are therefore inevitable. In developing countries the tradition of slash-and-burn clearance or the application of out-dated production methods can result in greater vulnerability for people and their property. On the other hand it may result in greater hazard due to the adverse impact on the natural environment (e.g. erosion through deforestation). The population is not prepared to engage in mutual support schemes and organize themselves in order to negotiate competing interests in the search for greater levels of general welfare. These political, economic and cultural factors are interconnected in a complex way. They have a reciprocal relationship and often compound each other. Progress in individual aspects, therefore, may well also have a positive effect on other vulnerability factors. A general improvement in school education, for instance, can be expected to help reduce poverty, facilitate the application of appropriate production methods and raise organizational abilities. This in turn can motivate people for prevention, thus generating a positive influence on the political factors through greater participation. 3.4 Impact and Threat of Climate Change The major impacts and threats of global warming are well-known. Recent increase in global temperature as already experienced intensity and extreme events, for example frequent occurrence of flood and intensity of heat wave. On the other hand global warming will increase melting water from glaciers and ice sheets which will cause sea level to rise and also has the potential to influence global patterns of ocean circulation respectively. This causes thermal expansion of the oceans. Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture, food security, human health, global ecosystems, biodiversity and coastal zones. Some of the impact and threat had already been experienced and if this continued in current way which will affect the global ecosystem in the following way. Impact Threats 1. Changes in rainfall pattern 1. Will lead to severe shortage of water and causes drought around the globe 2. Will increase average rainfall and causes severe flooding around the globe. 3. It will have unpleasant impact on agriculture and traditional subsistence-based agriculture. This becomes more vulnerable and difficult which will eventually affecting the economic well-being of the local famers. 2. Melting of glaciers 1. Many rivers and lakes formed by melting of glacier water will grow in size and causes flooding recently which pose threat to nearby villages but very soon when there will be no glacial melt, this causes them to dry up and spread drought. 2. If the melting of glaciers continues on the current rate, all Farmlands which depend on glacial water will dry up and it will lead up to scarcity of food. 3. Sea level will rise and entire communities living on coastal zone always pose threat from increasing sea water level. 4. Many animals, birds, and fish that depend on fresh melting water from glaciers for survival will either reduce in numbers or get wiped out over a period of time. 3. Change in regional temperature Change in climate patterns will cause shift in crop growing seasons which affects food security. Crops will tend to fail or become unbeneficial where conditions are currently marginal for their production but on the other hand crops may tend to grow successfully in other area where conditions are suitable and has become marginal for other crops. 2. Increase in temperature will speed up the life cycles of both the mosquito and the disease viruses. This will produce smaller adult mosquitoes to feed more often to develop an egg batch, which in turn increases the chances for disease transmission which will put more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. 3. Temperature increases will potentially accelerate rates of extinction for many habitats and species (up to 30% with a 2 ° C rise in temperature). It will also affect coral reefs, boreal, forests and mountain habitats. 4. Increasing sea levels 1. It will greater the risk of storm surge, inundation and wave damage to coastlines, particularly in small island states and countries with low lying deltas. 2. Fresh underground water on coastal lines will get polluted with salty sea water making it unfit for drinking or irrigation Who is most Vulnerable to natural hazard? 98% of those killed and affected by natural disasters come from developing countries, underlining the link between poverty and vulnerability to disaster. Rich countries have a far greater ability to reduce the effects of extreme weather events (such as floods and droughts) than developing countries. Proof of this can be found in statistics produced by the Red Cross, which reveal that 22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed nations, 145 die per disaster in nations of medium human development. By 2025 over half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and storms. (World Disaster report, 2001) Natural hazards are a part of life. But hazards only become disasters when peoples lives and livelihoods are swept away. The vulnerability of communities is growing due to human activities that lead to increased poverty, greater urban dens